Tunguska, Chelyabinsk, Berlin, and New York

(See the previous post.) After my article on the Tunguska Event of 1908 was published, it was removed from This Month in Astronomical History (https://had.aas.org/resources/astro-history) because several members of the Planetary Sciences Division of the AAS sent this letter to the senior editors at the AAS Historical Astronomy Division. 

As senior members of the astronomy community who have spent much of our professional lives studying asteroid impacts and planetary defense, we are concerned by some of the misstatements and omissions in the short article on Tunguska from the AAS Historical Astronomy Division published in the AAS News Digest of 6 June. It fails to represent the currently understood risk from asteroid impacts and the considerable ongoing effort to protect our planet. We request that this article be re-evaluated and either withdrawn or modified to correct these misstatements.

The first half, which is basically a history of the Tunguska event and the early efforts to understand it, does not need much work, although the lengthy discussion of whether this was a strike by an asteroid versus a comet is misplaced; it was a cosmic event by an object in orbit crossing the Earth’s, and further detail hardly matters. There is no established evidence that we know of recovered meteorites associated with Tunguska, and we now know the frequency of impacts of this size. Tunguska was the largest such strike in history of a size expected every couple millennia, which played a critical role in alerting humanity to the real danger from cosmic impacts.

With the comments about the Chelyabinsk impact this story goes off-base. The statement that more than a dozen people were killed by Chelyabinsk we believe is false, and needs to be either documented or removed. The statement that Earth impactors are all on orbits interior to ours is incorrect, it should instead state that impactor orbits must cross the Earth’s orbit, thus are both interior and exterior in different parts of their orbit. Chelyabinsk was not detected by telescopes before impact, it came from close to the dirction [sic] of the sun and could not have been seen in the night sky. The writer seems to have conflated Chelyabinsk with the observations of asteroid 2018 LA, which was observed in the night sky by a survey telescope some hours before impact. In fact, by now 8 small asteroids have been discovered telescopically before impact, a tribute to our ever improving search capabilities.

The size (energy) of the Chelyabinsk impact should be noted, and that we expect something of this size (energy) to hit the Earth about once in a few decades, so it is not unusually large or energetic compared to the observed flux of impactors. It is important to tell readers that the Earth is under constant bombardment by NEOs (Near-Earth Objects, a term chosen to include both asteroids and comets), and that thanks to an international program to detect NEOs we know how often such strikes take place and have a fair chance of predicting the next big one. It is a disservice to imply that astronomers are neglecting this issue or don’t know how to calculate orbits. There is a robust international program studying planetary defense, and the DART experiment" "was notable as the first active defense experiment. The reference to the book “The Asteroid Hunters” is useful, but the other items mentioned at the end of the article are not needed. In particular, any means of diverting an asteroid from a collision course takes time (weeks or months minimum, or even years), so last-minute (or hour) detection cannot prevent an impact.

We are concerned not only by mis-statements of fact in this article, but by basic confusion about the asteroid impact hazard and how astronomers and others are dealing with it. That should be the real lesson of the Tunguska event.

Alan Harris (Former Secretary-Treasurer of DPS, 1995-2001)

David Morrison (Former Secretary-Treasurer of DPS, 1971-1977, and Chair, 1980-1981)

Clark Chapman (Former Chair of DPS, 1982-1983)

We have been further assisted in documenting Tunguska by Mark Boslough, who is not a member of AAS or any Division. We attach an abstract under preparation for an upcoming GSA meeting with him as first author, the other three of us as co-authors, and many additional experts in the field of impact dynamics."

First, I fixed the egregious error. I had accepted the initial news reports from Chelaybinsk at face value and did not go back and check. After the emergency responders worked the scene and victims were sent to hospitals, it was found that no one had been killed. 

I also clarified the language of the celestial mechanics to remove ambiguity. I had written: In addition, they orbit between the Earth and Sun and in the glare of our star are often lost to sight. They also identified the salient fact that the objects are lost to sight: "Chelyabinsk was not detected by telescopes before impact, it came from close to the dirction [sic] of the sun and could not have been seen in the night sky."  

They claimed, "There is no established evidence that we know of recovered meteorites associated with Tunguska..." It is true that no iron or nickel-iron meteorites have been recovered. However, they ignored 100 years of evidentiary reports from the USSR and  Russia.  Every criminologist knows the maxim of Edmond Locard: "Every touch leaves a trace."

It is from this point that the astronomers, as they say, "go off-base." They wrote: "The writer seems to have conflated Chelyabinsk with the observations of asteroid 2018 LA, which was observed in the night sky by a survey telescope some hours before impact." My grammar was quite clear. There was no conflation. I wrote: Asteroid 2018 LA exploded over Botswana (2 June 2018) and was only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land.¹⁷  And that is the plain truth. 

In an email to my editor, I said that from there, they sound like the government scientists in a science fiction movie. "We have this under control," they say, and then Godzilla comes out of the sea. The astronomers wrote: "In fact, by now 8 small asteroids have been discovered telescopically before impact, a tribute to our ever improving search capabilities." 

I confess that I soft-pedaled the re-write by acknowledging the work of NASA. 

[quote] On 21 January 2024, NASA’s Scout Impact hazard assessment system identified a meter-sized asteroid (later designated 2024 BX1) 95 minutes before it impacted the atmosphere over Germany, possibly leaving debris 60 km away in the Czech Republic.¹⁸ [close] 

I did not point out that the asteroid was first spotted by an amateur who reported it to the International Astronomical Union 27 minutes earlier. From there, NASA picked up the report and tracked the object. NASA did not detect it first. (See: "Asteroid 2024 BX1: From a Light in the Sky to Rocks on the Ground" by Bob King, Sky & Telescope, 26 January 2024 here: https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/asteroid-2024-bx1-from-a-dot-of-light-to-fireball-to-rocks-on-the-ground/.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/preparations-underway-as-planet-killer-
asteroid-the-size-of-cruise-ship-nears-earth-233328582.html

Their complaint of 12 June 2024 could not have predicted the explosion of a meteor over New York City on 16 July 2024.

As for planetary defense, there is no doubt that any mission would require preparation, which is lacking now. 

I had the good fortune to meet Dr. Claudio Bombardelli when he was a visiting researcher here at the University of Texas. I attended a lecture on the DROMO orbit plotting program. In that, he spoke of rescuing Mumbai by diverting a meteorite to strike in Kazakhstan, the lesser of two evils (absent a consultation from that government). What impressed me most was the synthetic (theoretical; mathematical) solution to orbit plotting with minimal data and minimal time. 

I sent my rewrite forward to the editorial committee of the AAS HAD and there was no reply from them or the Planetary Division. 

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Winter Happened

On Monday, 8 February, I saw an early honeybee on an early dandelion. On the 15th, temperatures were in the single digits. The state of Texas suffered a winter storm from the Panhandle to the Rio Grande. We were in one square mile that did not lose electrical power. However, by Wednesday night, the water quit. 

Fortunately, on Monday, we had filled kitty litter pails and put them in the bathrooms for flushing. (We keep them for household moves because they store electronics, glassware, etc., very nicely.) But by Friday, when it warmed up, I refilled them all with roof runoff, again for flushing. We had enough bottled water. We keep 10 gallons in glass and refill six heavy plastic gallons for daily use. We have two Brita filters, one caraffe and one for the faucet. And we still have plenty of dry, packaged, and frozen food. Gratefully, we did lose power, though we could have put the refrigerated and frozen food outdoors for a few days, as other people did. And we have a barbeque grill and five bags of charcoal in the garage.

2004 Kingsley, Michigan, Halfway to the North Pole (45 N)
Roof rakes for when then snowfall threatens the structure.

We expect the "boil water" notices to be lifted in a couple of days. Just in case, though, I started tap water boiling on the stove.

Emergency preparedness is a state of mind and a lifestyle habit. I was fortunate to have worked a project for the Texas Department of Public Safety Division of Emergency Management in 2014 and then go from there to a project at the Texas Military Department which took me into the Texas State Guard, which included 15 or 20 online classes from FEMA, and half a dozen live exercises, culminating in three deployments. Aristotle called deep learning "second nature."

Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires, snowstorms, my nightmare scenario is that the Permian Basin is going to sink 500 feet and become a lava field.

Previously on Necessary Facts

CERT: Community Emergency Response Team 

Hurricane Tejas 

The Next Hurrican Harvey 

Volunteering in an Emergency: What to Expect 

Toxic Leadership

“You’re fired!” Pres. Donald Trump not only cannot get along with the people he hires, he denies them afterward. He called Gen. Jim Mattis “over-rated.” If we did not know Donald Trump from his own publicity about his success in real estate (The Art of the Deal, Random House, 1987), then his rise as a media personality should have warned us that he is not someone to take responsibility for his actions. 

March 13, 2020. Remarks and Press Conference on the Coronovirus outbreak

Q    Thank you so much, Mr. President.  Dr. Fauci said earlier this week that the lag in testing was, in fact, “a failing.”  Do you take responsibility for that?

And when can you guarantee that every single American who needs a test will be able to have a test?  What’s the date of that?

THE PRESIDENT:  Yeah, no, I don’t take responsibility at all, because we were given a — a set of circumstances and we were given rules, regulations, and specifications from a different time.  It wasn’t meant for this kind of an event with the kind of numbers that we’re talking about.  And what we’ve done is redesigned it very quickly with the help of the people behind me.  And we’re now in very, very strong shape.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference-3/

This is President Trump during an online meeting with state governors. Perhaps he had something else going on in his mind that made him feel defensive, but when I caught this image, he was listening to Gov. Larry Hogan, Republican, of Maryland, who was thanking him. 

GOVERNOR HOGAN:  Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, this is Larry Hogan, Chairman of the NGA.  First of all, I just want to thank you so much for this call today and I want to thank you for the great communication that you've had with all of the governors over the past few weeks.  It's been tremendous.

Mr. President, thank you for signing the second stimulus last night and for your ongoing efforts to mitigate the economic impact that we're all facing.  And thank you so much for appointing Vice President Pence, a former governor, to lead this crisis.  He has been terrific in working with all of us and reaching out to us.

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Larry.

GOVERNOR HOGAN:  Yesterday, yesterday, we had a meeting of all of the governors at NGA, prior to this call.  And, you know, we were getting a lot--you're getting a lot of input--  you're being bombarded by 50 different people with different questions.  We try to consolidate it down to, kind of, a group of concerns that all of the governors agreed on were, sort of, our priorities.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-video-teleconference-governors-covid-19/

In the Middle Ages, military authority and civil authority were identical. As Europe reawakened, the military was subordinated to civilian control. Ever less often did dukes, kings, and emperors lead their troops into battle.The capture of Napoleon III at Sedan in 1871 was the dunce’s after school lesson. And military dictatorships are notoriously unsuccessful. So, the modern army carries out the orders it is given. The Second Gulf War was not just winnable: it was won. The fifth largest army in the world melted and evaporated. We then met them again in a new fog of war, a war that could not be won. Sometimes, being brilliantly intelligent is just not enough. (The Fourth Star previously on NecessaryFacts reviewed here.) 

But Pres. Donald Trump is not brilliant. People like him who become leaders need strong teams. Donald Trump never learned how to build a team. He just appoints people to jobs and fires them when they disagree with him. We are living through the consequences of that.

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The Leader's Bookshelf 

Leadership 

Extreme Ownership: How the Navy SEALs Lead and Win 

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Team of Teams 

Why I Served

I joined the Texas State Guard in order to be trained in emergency response. The TXSG surpassed my expectations. It was an honor and a privilege to have been a Texan serving Texas.

I am a technical writer; and I usually work as a contractor. In the winter and spring of 2014, a local temporary agency placed me at the Texas Department of Public Safety Division of Emergency Management (TDEM). I reviewed, edited, and wrote specifications for public bids on materials and services. I was directed to find out about the Texas State Guard because they staff Red Cross shelters for which they need computers and peripheral equipment. They also provide personnel for the evacuation and tracking of people leaving disaster sites on state-leased vehicles. 

My last project at TDEM was to bring into agreement two different sets of training materials on “Managing Spontaneous Volunteers at a Disaster.” Spontaneous volunteers are often called “the disaster within the disaster.” Even though they have good intentions, they are usually untrained and often unprepared to care for themselves. I learned that VOADs are Volunteer Organizations Active in Disasters. If you want to be useful, join a VOAD. Unfortunately, I did not find one that offered the training that I was looking for on a schedule that I could meet. 

Then, I was asked to work for the Texas Military Department office of the Executive Director at Camp Mabry. I documented upgrades to a computer system. One day, I walked across the road to the Texas State Guard headquarters and asked the first person I met what I had to do to volunteer. Suddenly, I was surrounded.

Induction ceremony
22 November 2014

 We met a couple more times and talked about my background and their needs. I read a lot on the TXSG and TMD websites. The TXSG asked for at least three years of service. Having just turned 65, I could promise that. (Back then, the last day of service was prior to your 71^st birthday. Now it is the drill before you turn 70.) On November 22, 2014, I took the oath of office and was sworn in as a petty officer 3^rd class (E-4) in the Maritime regiment, but assigned to plans and operations in the headquarters command at Camp Mabry. My first billet was Future Operations (FUOPS).

While in FUOPS, I began learning WebEOC, the virtual emergency operations computer platform used by everyone from FEMA down to the fire department. I began attending classes in WebEOC and helping my fellow learners with the hands-on exercises. On October 7, 2015, I taught “WebEOC for Battle Captains” to the TXSG Officer Candidate School. It was the first of nine classes that I was assigned to teach, including four more OCS sessions. When Hurricane Harvey struck, I served 23 days as the primary WebEOC operator for the Texas State Guard Emergency Operations Center (TEOC). 

 

Meritorious Service Ribbon,
Brevet promotion, and Farewell
26 October 2019

Not being prior federal, I went through RBOT, the Regional Basic Orientation Training of the TXSG. The age-based requirements seemed easy enough, but I discovered that I could not do a single push-up or sit-up. So, I started with toe-touches. Fortunately, that was in January and RBOT was not until April. By then, I exceeded all of the minimums for push-ups, sit-ups, and one mile, for someone half or a third of my age. The last fitness examination was in December 2018. We were held to previous US Army standards and again I exceeded the minimums for someone one-third my age. For me, the physical fitness requirements were an important benefit to being in the Maritime regiment of the TXSG. Exercise has been routine these past four years, and I am lucky to be working now for a company with a gymnasium on site. 

Integral to emergency management, I learned and practiced the FEMA incident command system (ICS). Among the certifications I earned were Managing and Developing Volunteers, Risk Management, Continuity of Operations, Public Information Systems, and Protecting Critical Infrastructure Against Insider Threats. 

In July 2016, the Texas National Guard asked the Texas State Guard for six clerk typists (now called operations specialists). I served 14 months as a full-time temporary state employee in the domestic operations task force. Mostly, I read, edited (and eventually wrote) orders. I also carried them from office to office, desk to desk, getting sign-offs. That led to a couple of interesting moments with an Air Force lieutenant colonel who did not understand why he was being tasked by a sergeant. I had to remember that my crows were not eagles. Also while working in DOMOPS, I learned to take care of officers. My first sergeant and I ran the coffee mess, emptied the trash, and cleaned the work spaces.

In July 2018, I became the public affairs officer (PAO) of the TXSG Maritime Regiment. I tended our Facebook page and published a feature story in the TMD monthly magazine. 

On January 1, 2020, the TXSG joint force command structure will be in place and TMAR will cease to exist. We are casing the colors at our annual ball next February.

It was an honor and a privilege to serve. For most of my time in uniform, our commanding general was Gerald “Jake” Betty. Soon after I joined, our office was disassembled and eventually restored brick-by-brick by the historical commission. (They even built replica panes and returned the original glass.) During the hiatus our headquarters was moved to a trailer and some other unused spaces. I attended many briefings for the command group and general staff. BG Betty ended every meeting with three mandates: Do your duty. Take care of your people. Go home with your honor. 

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS

Volunteering in an Emergency: What to Expect 

Your State Defense Force

Hurricane Tejas

Hurricane Harvey

Regimental Public Affairs Officer

On May 4 and-5 May 2019, I attended training for public affairs officers in the Texas Military Department. The training was presented by public affairs professionals from the news media and from the military. Of necessity, some presenters wore both hats. Of course, the panel discussions and lectures were focused on news reporting for military public affairs. In addition, I picked up good pointers about writing for any market or audience.

The Introduction by LTC David Spanton set the context. “We have three goals,” he said. 

1.    Meet your peers. Make friends. 

2.   Recognition of our work.

3.   Professional development.

The morning sessions were on Crisis Management, Media Relations, and Social Media. In the afternoon, we covered Photo & Video, and Cracking the Awards. On the second day, we were reminded of the fundamental truths in career development. The seminar ended with an awards ceremony to recognize the writers, photographers, and videographers in the Texas Army National Guard, the Texas Air National Guard, and the Texas State Guard.

 

Texas State Guard Public Affairs
Maritime (left) and Army (right)

The first panel discussion on the first day was about Crisis Communications. The presenters were Bryce Dunbee (Austin Bergstrom International Airport), Natalie Bidnick Andreas (public relations consultant),  Caitlin Rourk (crisis management consultant).

Bryce recommended having a tagline that closes every statement: “As always, safety is our number one priority.”  Natalie said that crisis communication begins with an apology. She also emphasized the need for clear social media policies that apply to everyone from the CEO to interns. Caitlin encouraged us to find case studies of actual events. “Pick a crisis and then wordsmith a statement for it during your monthly drill as an exercise.” Look for bookmarkable case studies in crisis management.

They all insisted that public affairs officers need to reach out early and often to news media.  “Get your buy-in before the crisis…. Make your contacts in times of peace… Become part of the command staff equation. … Know your contacts in your legal affairs department.” And remember that today everyone is on a national stage.

Panel Sessions were held in 
the Audie Murphy Building

Natalie warned us to watch out for scope creep. You will have a client or stakeholder, a commander of some kind, who wants more services, whether that means more of your time or creating a new and better spin to the story. She recommended holding your ground. “You tell them: ‘I am duty bound and this is what I can do.’”  So, how do you push back to a client or a commander? You outline for them the reputational risk and give them a threat analysis. 

Crisis preparation is defining the “so-what” in a story. The numbers do not lie. Metrics speak. Tell the media not only why your organization is out there doing these things, but why your communications directors or spokespersons are saying these things. “We are continuing to investigate.” Tell them when you will have the information they seek.  

Have your speakers, your commanders, be prepared for the next question.  Reporters know that you are prepped for one or two responses. So, they keep asking more questions until they get to the one you are not prepared for.

At the end of the first day, the sixth panel was titled “Cracking the Awards” (SSG Will Reinier, Jordyn Fetter, and MSG Thomas Wheeler presenting). They did not say this, but it is a known cliché (perhaps from Napoleon) that a soldier will do anything for a piece of colored silk. Awards matter for the same reasons that publicity itself matters: recognition is important. So, how do you get recognized? 

Stick to the criteria. Follow the instructions. Look for categories with fewer entrants. It is pretty easy. 

 

Class Photo: Texas Military Department
Public Affairs Officers Seminar

I found value in their outline for any story. We are writing non-fiction. These are reports to the public. But it is best told as a story. 

Five elements of any story.

1.    Set the scene. Take a wide shot.

2.   Introduce the character. Root for or against.

3.   Find the conflict. Find the challenge.

4.   Conflict changes the character.

5.   Resolution.

Similarly, the first panel of the second day on Career Management (LTC David Spanton, MAJ Jose Perez) underscored truths that apply to all professions. Look for opportunities in education, training, promotions, and assignment. Follow up on continuing education whether that is the completion of certifications or accreditations or maintaining your society memberships.  

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Asteroid Hunters by Carrie Nugent

This is an inspired little book with a lot of problems. I pulled it from the stacks at my city library neighborhood branch because I wanted something casual to read and because I wanted to find a book to review for my local astronomy club newsletter. Asteroid hunting is one of the activities of amateur astronomers that intersects the work of professionals. Comet hunting is another. I was pleasantly surprised by Dr. Nugent’s easy explanation of why, contrary to our common assumptions, asteroids and comets are often the same. That was one of several interesting facts in a flawed presentation. 

With a lot of hope, I expected to read about amateur and professional astronomers, including photographs of the instruments used by my unpaid colleagues who work for the love of it. Instead, I soon met the first of over 20 errors of fact. It started with the vernacular American style which includes jarring grammatical lapses and sentence fragments.

• “When I tell people I’m a space scientist studying asteroids, they sometimes assume I’m a super-smart math whiz. The kind of person who skipped a bunch of grades and went to college when they were sixteen.” (page 2)
• “There wasn’t going to be any surprises.” (page 15)
• “Soy latte, check e-mail, wait for the caffeine to kick in.” (page 29)
• “… there’s a few…” (page 73)

Nugent writes, “… sometimes artifacts of the telescope can masquerade as an asteroid moving across the sky. These artifacts can be a series of cosmic rays, or the edge of a flare from a bright star.” (page 29).That is not what an “artifact” is in a viewing instrument. When you see your eyelashes in a microscope because of internal reflections in the lens system, that is an artifact. 

Asteroid Hunters by Carrie Nugent, 

TED Books Simon & Schuster, 2017, 

108 pages, $16.99.

https://www.crnugent.com

Nugent wrongly claims that astronomers in 1800 thought that the planets orbit in circles. “Existing methods of the time [1800-1802] used the assumption that the planets traveled around the Sun in circular paths, when in reality they traveled on a specific geometric path called an ellipse.” (page 43) But it was Kepler who first fit the orbits of the planets into elliptical paths about 1605.

At that point, Nugent already referenced Kepler, though she never mentions Newton. Kepler showed that the planets travel in ellipses and then that was proved as mathematically necessary by Newton. Newton’s calculus demonstrated that objects moving under the influence of a central force do so in paths that are conic sections. It is called a “necessary fact” something that is both required by logic and observed in experience. The shape of the orbit (line, hyperbola, parabola, ellipse, circle) depends on the velocity of the object. 

An underlying theme of this book is that getting money to search for near-Earth asteroids has been difficult because the political agencies that fund such research consider the possibility of catastrophe to be remote. The kind of asteroid that could end life as we know it comes only every 65 million years. However, two asteroids dramatically became meteorites in recent times: the Sudan 2008 TC3; and Siberia 2012DA14 (Chelyabinsk). The Sudan fall was predicted a few hours ahead of impact. Siberia was a complete surprise.

Nugent explains the difficulties in spotting asteroids. For one thing, the Sun blocks our view. But she also explains the work-arounds of observation and orbit plotting. At least, she says that such tools exist.  In fact, Nugent presents orbit plotting as extremely complex, difficult mathematics that only a genius could master. If not for Carl Gauss, we would be working in the dark, so to speak. But it only takes three points, three observations, to define a conic section. 

That being so, what makes orbit plotting and asteroid hunting a challenge is the many perturbations that change the neat conic sections into wobbly, wonky drunk walks. Nonetheless, celestial bodies travel in very predictable, mathematically definable paths. Even the perturbations are knowable and predictable. That being so, it remains that even now, 300 years after Newton’s Principia, for the most exacting predictions, we depend on tables of previous observations, rather than applying undergraduate calculus to three observations.

Nugent says that “Space is cold.” (page 64 para 6). It is not cold if you are in direct sunlight. Then, it is hot. Whether space is hot or cold depends on the definitions. Statistical mechanics defines temperature by the number of particles with a significant velocity. If you have one or two traveling at the speed of light,  you have “cold.” If you have thousands going 10 mph, it is hot: just rub your hands together as fast as you can. (Don’t burn yourself.) 

Nugent discusses the important statistical method of her team without naming it. Writing about p-values, (page 76) she calls it “debiasing” (pgs-75-77). “They also knew the time and location in the sky of every image NEOWISE had ever taken. The computer simulation exactly modeled how NEOWISE observed the sky and what it would be able to see. Then, they simulated hundreds of thousands of ‘synthetic’ asteroids and ran them through the simulation to see how many asteroids NEOWISE would have seen. The result was compared to what NEOWISE actually saw.” Nugent then gives an example using 10, 12, and 18 samples.  “Of course, the actual implementation is more complicated than that, and many more asteroids are simulated so that the results have statistical significance. But you get the idea. With this method, we know what we don’t know.” (page 77).  

Dr. Nugent delivered her TED Talk in February 2016. This book came out in 2017. But p-values and “statistical significance” were being questioned for the very misuse and abuse of statistical methods by scientists such as Dr. Nugent. 

• “Why Most Published Research Findings are False,” John P. A. Ioannidis, PLoS Medicine, August 2005. https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
• “How to Use p-Values Correctly,” Kerry Grens, March 9, 2016,The Scientist. https://www.the-scientist.com/the-nutshell/how-to-use-p-values-correctly-33910
• “The ASA’s statement on p-values: context, process, and purpose,” by Ronald L. Wasserman, and Nicole A. Lazar, The American Statistician, March 9, 2016. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108

It is a serious fact that keeping up with all of the sciences not related to your own is a challenge. However, this controversy was first opened for discussion in 2005 and just as Dr. Nugent was approaching TED Talks, it burst out. The ASA Statement can be found on many websites for university undergraduate classes in statistics. She should have known. They all should have, rather than surging forward with their millions of computer-simulated asteroids.

And yet, there is much here, even though the details may not motivate anyone else. I always accepted the easy statement that a thousand Earths could fit inside Jupiter. The giant planet’s diameter is about ten times our own’s. Ten cubed is a thousand. (In fact, it works out to Jupiter’s volume being about 1381 times that of Earth.) In a footnote, Dr. Nugent explains that packing spheres leaves space between them. Only about 800 Terras could be fit into Jove. I learned something that I should have figured out on my own. So, I am appreciative.

Jupiter is discussed in the context of asteroid Shoemaker-Levy 9 striking Jupiter. “Unfortunately, the impact was going to hit the side of Jupiter that was facing away from Earth, so astronomers with telescopes wouldn’t have a direct view. … A fleet of spacecraft was trained on Jupiter, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the ROSAT X-ray satellite, and …” (page 81) Neither of those was in any position to see the far side of Jupiter. Both Hubble and ROSAT orbited Earth. In fact, Hubble did send images from after the impact. 

This NASA Hubble Space Telescope image of Jupiter's cloudtops was taken at 5:32 EDT on July 16, 1994, shortly after the impact of the first fragment (A) of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. A violet (410 nanometer) filter of the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 was used to make the image 1.5 hours after the impact.  http://hubblesite.org/image/170

And it was not a single event but a series of impacts. The comet had broken up two years earlier in a previous pass-by in July 1992. The fragment stream impacted the planet over six days, July 16-22, 1994. As Jupiter rotates on its axis with a period of about 10 hours (9 hr 55 min 30 sec), the effects of the fall could still be detected. In fact, “ripples” on Jupiter out to its thin ring were recorded as late as 2002.  (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoemaker–Levy_9) and see https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/comet-shoemaker-levy-9-20-years-later-07162014/). So, the actual moments of these impacts may have been missed by all, but being in Earth orbit would not have made any difference.

When you watch Prof. Carrie Nugent’s TED Talk here, it is obvious that she is excited about her work and the opportunity to share it with an audience that will care. Those six minutes are fine as far as they go. The difference is that print captures everything except (perhaps) exuberance. 

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Questions about A Brief History of Time 

Backyard Astronomy 

Turn Left at Orion 

Harriman’s Logical Leap Almost Makes It