Wednesday, September 17, 2025

ArmadilloCon 47, part 2.

ArmadilloCon is produced by FACT: Fandom Association of Central Texas. "The Fandom Association of Central Texas, Inc. is a Texas non-profit educational organization dedicated to the promotion of science fiction, fantasy, and speculative fiction, and the appreciation of science.." 

In Bruce Sterling's Schizmatrix, within the vast but thin human realm of our solar system there is a spaceship which is also recognized as an independent nation. I find FACT to be a lot like that. This is the link to the FACT Organization Chart, Board of Directors, Corporate Officers, and Convention Committee. Not bad for a club with fewer than 50 members. I was elected to the Board last year but my best service is just showing my appreciation for their Writers Workshop and Flash Fiction contest and advertising in the show guide. 

Entrance of the Fans into the Dealers Room
Saturday morning.

Plot Bunnies Ate My Brain

Every year at the free literature table, I found cute notepads and other writerly chachkas from Rhonda Eudaly. "Plot Bunnies Ate My Brain." On her blog, she wrote:

I badly quote an previous Poli-Sci professor my mom worked for and I took a couple of classes with. He said (ish), to be a “professional” writer you had to either 1. be paid or 2. get 200 rejections, whichever comes first.

Pretty sure I’ve gotten both of those things. And yet, with my publishing gap (much like employment gaps), it feels like I’ve been reset to zero. I have stories out. Got 3 rejections last week alone – maybe four? There’s a rejection that’s unclear because I realized I had 2 stories with the same market (oops – still getting back on that bicycle) and the rejection didn’t specify WHICH (or BOTH) were rejected. I’m erring on the side of…both.


[...]It sounds an awful lot a “partly cloudy” day, where you see more clouds than sun, but the sun is still dominant. 

https://www.rhondaeudaly.com/
Rhonda Eudaly with show scheduler Ryan Marshall Mareska.

Persephone Station and Loki's Ring

Last year (ArmadilloCon 46), I served on a panel with Stina Leicht (pronounced ungermanically as "Light").  Stina did most of the talking as we argued the future of generative AI while two other panelists tried to get a word in. At ArmadilloCon 41, Stina moderated “The Perfect Heist: Crime in the 23rd Century” wherein David Afrarishad, Rob Rogers, Michael Bracken, Rebecca Roanhorse and I robbed a space station. I was the wheelman. We got away with it. 

Stina Leicht reading a passage from the Persephone Station series.
https://www.csleicht.com/

This year, I sat in on one of her readings. I bought Loki's Ring a couple of years ago. So, I had some context. Stina said that she likes a "Star Trek" style universe where people's basic needs are met and the bad guys are libertarians. I think that Stina has a libertarian streak of her own and that she is exactly the kind of person who would be miserable in the socialist utopia of Ursula K. LeGuin's The Dispossessed.  

When Space Tries to Kill You

Again this year, I attended "Space Tries to Kill You" chaired by NASA trainer Bill Frank with support from Beth Anderson, William Ledbetter, Jayme Lynn Blaschke, and Paige Ewing. Bill Frank read off scenarios, rotating the first responders around the table. 

One time, I was with some Army guys watching Women's Field Hockey, 
and one guy said, "It's amazing that this sport is not more popular."

The first challenge was one we had before: You are cleaning an air filter when the fire alarm goes off. What do you do? The standard answer is always: Warn; Gather; Work. Report the problem to everyone immediately. Get everyone into the safest place(s). Address the problem from known (or creative) response scenarios. In this case, the panelists were ahead of the curve. Whatever you did to the air filter, stop doing that. They also discussed the importance of oxygen to you and to the fire. And so on... The answer is that you probably tripped the fire alarm when you released a cloud of dust cleaning the filters. 

Beth Anderson admitted that she was a panelist because the scheduler, Marshall Mareska, said that she would like it. Beth writes horror fiction and does read scifi. I thought that she did well, being an insightful and original thinker who knows tons of basic science. Bill Ledbetter had a career in aerospace before that was eclipsed by writing science fiction. Jayme Lynn Blashke was the convention Toastmaster this year. Scifi is just one thing that he does and it does not rank up there with "The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas" (https://www.jaymeblaschke.com/)

I corralled Paige E. Ewing after the session and we chatted for about 20 minutes. She got into this aspect of the business by designing a self-contained greenhouse and proposing it to NASA which thanked her with an award in 2013. See https://paigeewing.com/ for the fantasy and romance novelist, Paige E. Ewing. Find "Marvin's Lunchbox" on YouTube and find out how to grow edible algae on Mars here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oialhSOzCzQ

Problem 2: You have to drive from Austin to Denver and your choices are a Tesla RoboTaxi in which you have no control whatsoever and a used Dodge with steering and all that but a bad transmission. The analogy is the difference between the Tesla Dragon and the Boeing CST-100 Starliner

Problem 3: You are on the International Space Station and a piece of space junk cuts into your shell. You have five hours of air. What do you do? 

Problem 3B: You are on the Boeing Starliner and a piece of space junk cuts your shell and you have five hours of air. 

Problem 5: It is the middle of the night and you have to go to the bathroom but it is noisy and will wake everyone else up.

The last problem was that you are being tracked by an anti-satellite missile launched from the ground. 

All in all, the panelists did well and Bill Frank had to disappoint them only a couple of times.

THE VAN SHOW from the Austin Public Library

ArmadilloCon 50
We have two tables of free handouts - see the Plot Bunnies above - and I placed handouts calling attention to the fact that ArmadilloCon 50 is in 2029 and suggesting that at the next FACT Board Meeting we should form a committee to plan for that. 

My write-ups on this blog can only have delivered some of the many flavors, aspects, angles, views, and feelings of ArmadilloCon. The experience is necessarily individual. It is a surprisingly small con: Paid attendance 220; 100 invited guests; 25 dealers. (Also 33 no-show registered attendees including five panelist no-shows.) Dealer tables pay for most of this with registration only adding to the cash flow. The con also sells t-shirts, this year designed by Artist Guest of Honor Sara Felix. 

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS


Sunday, September 14, 2025

ArmadilloCon 47 - 2025 September 12-14

Soon after I moved to Austin in 2011 and joined some local clubs in my interest areas  IEEE Fellow Kurt Baty invited me to attend ArmadilloCon. I replied, "I went to a Trekker con, and it was OK, but it is not really my thing." And he said, "Mike, this is not like any other science fiction convention. No one will be in Starfleet uniforms signing autographs. This is just for writers, artists, editors, and publishers--and, of course, readers." He was right. 

"Heresy! In the SFF Canon" - Linsey Miller, Jacob Weisman, Tracy Morris (moderator),

Amy Salley, Adrian Simmons. "What you hate most about long time favorites 

such as Larry Niven's Ringworld, Tolkien's Rings, Dune, and everything else."

I first attended ArmadilloCon 39 in 2017. Since then, Laurel and I have enjoyed many  panels. I also served on panels and delivered my own presentations. This year, I volunteered for the Registration Desk and the Hospitality Suite and found a couple of readings from our stalwart authors. Mostly, I had time enough to chat.

Dealers Room Opening Night

Friday afternoon, I attended "Speculative Geology" -- From those weird ass right angle mountains around Mordor to the hard-edged geologizing in Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy. the earth sciences are an important and tricky part of much speculative fiction! Moderator Eric Williams; panelists Avery Parks, Shlomi Harif, Lauren C. Teffeau. 

Holly Walrath and William Ledbetter.
Bill writes, sells, and publishes
after a career in aerospace.
(See "Space Tries to Kill You" in the next post.)
It was disappointing. They all just said that Nature is Important and Trees and Rocks are Important and a lot of stories have Trees and Rocks in them. They did note that plate tectonics was still being debated (sometimes acrimoniously) when classic scifi of the 1960s was being written and they said that there is a lot of Martian geology in Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy. 

In the Q&A, I asked if there was any speculative geology the way we have FTL and tachyon drives in speculative physics for science fiction. They said that new discoveries of exoplanets show that our solar system model of small rocky planets inside and gas giants outside seems not to be common after all. And we moved on from there. None of the panelists was a practicing geologist, though Lauren Teffeau and Avery Parks had worked in the subject area as students. Shlomi Harif was absent. Moderator Eric Williams did posit that geology itself is a speculative science because unlike experimental sciences geology can only create narratives to explain discoveries. He also offered the rapidly rotating planet in Hal Clement's Mission of Gravity as an example of speculative geology. And the panel agreed that Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars-Green Mars-Blue Mars makes a character out of the geology of the planet. Ann McCaffrey's Crystal Singers was among others mentioned as was "La Mort de la Terre" (1910) by J-H Rosny in which hematite crystals prey on animals with iron in their blood.

InfiniVox publishes anthologies 
with more science in the fiction.
 
After a difficult launch, it was up and out into other times and stranger spaces and I really benefited from the experience. Working the Con Suite, I loaded in ice and sliced cucumbers, and made time to sit and listen to published writers bragging and complaining.  At Registration, it was easy enough to find packets for those who registered in advance. I also made a point of escorting people to the elevators or the Art Show because "Over there" does not always work in a crowded room. 

 
Georgia Day at her table
 I met Georgia Day last year when we had tables near each other in the Dealers Room. She bought a new-in-the-box binocular microscope for her father. (I held it for a year trying to get the manufacturer to agree that they shipped me two, not one. Then, I just gave up...) Anyway, I confess that I am not a reader or at least not an avid reader of fiction. Some scifi writers claim 50 books a year while writing and marketing. They must not move their lips when they read. And so, I cut and paste this: 
"Of Sand and Bone by Georgia Day is an adventurous tale about a girl named Rue who sets out on a life-changing journey after a tragedy strikes that turns her life upside down. She meets a mysterious woman named Connor who is on a journey of her own. Together, they set off into the desert where they find loneliness, isolation, and an unforgiving landscape. Along the way, they meet many odd characters, some friendly and helpful while others are deadly enemies. 


Author Georgia Day’s writing style is sparse but deep and thoughtful, and her words float together in a poetic fashion. Of Sand and Bone is brilliant at times in its portrayal of the human mind as it journeys onward through unimaginable difficulties and trials. Every character, from Connor and Rue to the people they meet along the way, is a pleasing combination of realism and storybook fantasy. The author has made each character fascinating in their own unique way. I enjoyed reading Of Sand and Bone and found myself drawn into the personal struggles of the main characters. With each laborious step through the hot sand and under the merciless sun, I found myself cheering for them to keep going. Their journey became my journey, only I experienced it from the safety of my home. This novel succeeds in pulling the reader in for an immersive, enjoyable experience that won't soon be forgotten. I highly recommend Of Sand and Bone by Georgia Day. - Reviewed by Scott Cahan for Readers' Favorite. (https://readersfavorite.com/book-review/of-sand-and-bone)


Michelle Muenzler was a panelist on "Novel or Short Story?" at ArmadilloCon 39 (2017)  chaired by Louise Marley, with T. Eric Bakutis, Urania Fung, Patrice Sarath, and William Browning Spencer. 

She is also known as The Cookie Woman because she brings her homemade treats to the convention. I am not a sweet-toothed person, but I give in for her ginger snaps and other creations. She also writes well. More to the point, she reads aloud well. Not all authors do. Some just rush through the words as if they were reading silently to themselves. Others are hesitant in front of an audience, uncertain if this is going over well. Some people are performers and Michelle carries herself well. Reading her new short story, "In the Wet and the Pine" (Road Kill: Texas Horror volume 10, to be released) she was expressive while making good eye contact around the room, left-center-right. I bought her collection, The Hills of Meat, the Forest of Bone: A Broken Cities Novella (Falstaff Books, 2016), from Siros Books in the Dealers Room. The lesson I learned: there is no safety in numbers when the thing in the woods can eat a dozen people at once. 
 

Monday, September 1, 2025

AMERICAN LABOR DAY 2025: Why I Work

These quotations are from The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand, most of them spoken by the story's hero, Howard Roark. 

 “I have, let’s say, sixty years to live. Most of that time will be spent working. I’ve chosen the work I want to do. If I find no joy in it, then I am only condemning myself to sixty years of torture. And I can find the joy only if I do my work in the best way possible to me. But the best is a matter of standards—and I set my own standards. I inherit nothing. I stand at the end of no tradition.”  (Plume Edition, 1994. Page 16)



“An open car drove by, fleeing into the country. The car was overfilled with people bound for a picnic. There was a jumble of bright sweaters, and scarf fluttering in the wind; a jumble of voices shrieking without purpose over the roar of the motor, and overstressed hiccoughs of laughter; a girl sat sideways, her legs flung over the side of the car; she wore a man’s straw hat slipping down her nose and she yanked savagely at the strings of a ukulele, ejecting raucous sounds, yelling, “Hey!” These people were enjoying a day of their existence; they were shrieking to the sky their release from work and the burdens of days behind them; they worked and carried burdens in order to reach a goal—and this was the goal. (Plume Edition, 1994. Page 131)


 “… There will be thousands passing by your house and by the gas station. If out of those thousands, one stops and see it—that’s all I need.”

“Then you do need other people, after all, don’t you, Howard?”

“What are you laughing at?”

“I’ve always thought that you were the most anti-social animal I’ve ever had the pleasure of meeting.”

“I need people to give me work. I’m not building mausoleums. Do you suppose I should need them in some other way? In a closer more personal way?” (Plume Edition, 1994. Page 158)


DefCon 512 June 2013

“Why are you a good architect? Because you have certain standards of what is good, and they are your own, an d you stand by them. I want a good hotel, and I have certain standards of what is good, and they’re my own, and you’re the one who can give me what I want. I’m doing—on my side of it—just what you’re doing when you design a building. Do you think that integrity is the monopoly of the artist? And what, incidentally, do you think integrity is? The ability not to pick a watch out of your neighbor’s pocket? No, it’s not as easy as that. If that were all, I’d say ninety-five percent of humanity were honest, upright men. Only, as you can see, they aren’t. Integrity is the ability to stand by an idea. That presupposes the ability to think. Thinking is something that one doesn’t borrow or pawn. And yet, if I were asked to chose a symbol for humanity as we know it, I wouldn’t choose a cross nor an eagle nor a lion and unicorn. I’d choose three gilded balls.” – Kent Lansing. (Plume Ed., 1994. Page 321)


“I love doing it. Every building is like a person. Single and unrepeatable.”

(Plume Edition, 1994. Page 480)




“From different states, from unexpected parts of the country, calls had come for him: private homes, small office buildings, modest shops. … The story of every commission he received was the same: “I was in New York and I liked the Enright House.” “I saw the Cord Building.” “I saw a picture of the temple they tore down.” It was if an underground stream flowed through the country and broke out in sudden springs that shot to the surface at random, in unpredictable places. They were small, inexpensive jobs—but he was kept working.” (Plume Edition, 1994.  Page 533)

Austin Astronomical Society
13 October 2023


“Three quarters of them don’t know what it’s all about, but they’ve heard the other one-quarter fighting over your name and now they feel they must pronounce it with respect.  Of the fighting quarter, four-tenths are those who hate you, three-tenths are who feel they must have an opinion in any controversy, two-tenths are those who play safe and herald any new ‘discovery,’ and one-tenth are those who understand.” (Plume Edition, 1994. Page 536)


“One cannot collaborate on one’s own job. I can co-operate, if that’s what they call it, with the workers who erect my buildings. But I can’t help them to lay bricks and they can’t help me to design the house.” (Plume Edition, 1994.  Page 569)


American Numismatic Association
Rosemont (Chicago) 2019


“Roark got up, reached out, and tore a thick branch off a tree, held it in both hands, one fist closed at each end; then, his wrists and knuckles tenses against the resistance, he bent the branch slowly into an arc. “Now I can make what I want out of it: a bow, a spear, a cane, a railing. That’s the meaning of life. … Your work.” He tossed the branch aside. “The material the earth offers you and what you make of it.” (Plume Edition, 1994.  Page 577)


American Numismatic Association
Chicago Virtual 4 August 2020

“But first, I want you to think and tell me what made me give years to this work. Money? Fame? Charity? Altruism?... You see, I’m never concerned with my clients, only with their architectural requirements. I consider these as part of my building’s theme and problem, as my building’s material—just as I consider bricks and steel. Bricks and steel are not my motive. Neither are the clients. Both are only the means of my work. Peter, before you can do things for people, you must be the kind of man who can get things done. But to get things done, you must love the doing, not the secondary consequences. The work, not the people. Your own action …”  (Plume Edition, 1994.  Page 604)


PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS    

Money as a Crusoe Concept

Mutiny Aboard the San Antonio 

Recent Astronomical Observing 


Sunday, August 31, 2025

Psychohistory from Asimov’s Foundation to Big Data

Psychohistory had no academic definition before Isaac Asimov penned his Foundation Trilogy 1942-1953. In the 1970s the academic pursuit of psychohistory began as the application of psychoanalysis (Freud) to explain of the events of history. Alternate meaning came from attempting to explain individual psychology in terms of historical context. Eventually, in our time of big data and artificial intelligence, Asimov’s intention of a mathematical treatment of large scale historical events is a real though still putative pursuit. It is an easy claim (1 below) that no doctoral research program in history includes “psychohistory” in the title. 

Nevertheless, Asimov's intention has been understood. See for example, "Towards Asimov's Psychohistory: Harnessing Topological Data Analysis, Artificial Intelligence and Social Media Data to Forecast Societal Trends" by Isabela Rocha, Institute of Political Science of the University of Brasilia. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03446 and as edited arXiv:2407.03446v1 ) Rocha wrote: "In the age of big data and advanced computational methods, the prediction of large-scale social behaviors, reminiscent of Isaac Asimov's fictional science of Psychohistory, is becoming increasingly feasible." 

In addition, biologist and systems researcher Salva Duran-Nebreda also found Asimov's suggestion compelling: "Recent advances in complex systems research, computer-based simulations, and large-scale databases, are paving the way towards fully developing a mathematical theory of human history." ("Rashevsky’s dream: A physico-mathematical foundation of history and culture," Metode Science Studies Journal, Issue 13.)

Before the Renaissance, the depiction of a better world was always a previous golden age. This is in the Old Testament and it is in Hesiod’s Works and Days. Only with the Renaissance did there come a new idea: that we could create a better society. At root, the idea was a resurrection of Plato’s Republic but it soon became more than that because different philosophers had other ideas of what constituted a good society. Moreover, a causal vector in the rise of capitalism came from predictive mathematics. The exploration of gambling outcomes by Fermat and Pascal led quickly to the monetization and fungibility of risk. The statistical likelihood of future events was predictable — and therefore (theoretically) controllable. 

Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy was a child of its own time. Personal criticism of Asimov comes from his actions toward women at science fiction conventions and other gatherings. He, too, was a child of his time. First, science fiction of the Golden Age was a medium for boys. Girls were interested in science, of course, and political leaders with foresight encouraged an influx of young women into university science classes. (See “The Legacy of Vannevar Bush (Part 3)” published here June 1, 2025.) The primary actors in the Foundation Trilogy are men. Deeper than that, in  Foundation and Empire (1952; originally, book two in the series) when Bayta Darrell attempts to outline her analysis of Foundation politics to her husband, his father, and uncle, Toran Darrell leans over and  puts his hand over her mouth.

The Industrial Revolution was the cultural shift that created and allowed science fiction itself as apart from fable. Jules Verne and H. G. Wells were preceded by John Leonard Riddell, inventor of the binocular microscope, professor of chemistry, working geologist and botanist, and author and publisher of Orrin Lindsay’s Plan of Aerial Navigation, with a Narrative of His Explorations in the Higher Regions of the Atmosphere, and His Wonderful Voyage Round the Moon! (Rea's Power Press, New Orleans, 1847) (Cited on NecessaryFacts here.) Orrin Lindsay and his companion, an instrument maker, are both men, of course. A hundred years later, the world was changing. Many women science fiction authors hid their sex with pseudonyms, but others did not. 


Of course, previous science fiction placed its conflicts in worlds with troubles: no troubles; no story. Nonetheless, foundational to that was a general optimism that the future would evolve and be ever-better. H. G. Wells warned twice that the coming World War Two would bring an end to civilization. But it was ultimately only a temporary pause. He knew that some people would follow a would-be tyrant and rally against a rocket into outer space, but into the cosmos do go the rocket and the young couple. 


Two years ago (almost to date), I was having my stem cells harvested and ahead of that to pass the time while the tubes were in, I bought an armload of science fiction books at ArmadilloCon 45. Ecological disaster is the new normal. And unlike the science fiction of the Golden Age solving the problem does not create a better world—because the problem does not get solved. They just all go down the drain together. 


Hari Seldon was right: the intellectual leaders of our empire of science fiction cannot imagine a world other than the one they know. To even label the years 1941 to 1965, the “Golden Age of science fiction” is to admit the poverty of the present. And yet, I was, indeed, having my stem cells harvested.


Contrary to that Asimov’s own creation of the word “psychohistory” launched the academic studies that also use that name. 

The Journal of Psychohistory has been publishing quarterly since 1973, originally as The History of Childhood Quarterly and since 1976 as The Journal of Psychohistory. It is somewhat unique in the world of academic publishing in being one of very few journals not published by a large publishing house or by a University Press, subsidized by university funds. It has been independently published by Lloyd deMause for more than 40 years.

    The JOP has been a place where many authors have been able to see their work published in more than 800 articles, as well a several hundred book reviews and review essays. We welcome contributions to a new section that will run from time to time, Psychohistorical Perspective on Current Events.

    Recent issues include articles such as: A “Backward Engineering” view into how atrocities can be performed mechanistically and without feeling or guilt, how Politics Can Be Seen as Reflecting Borderline Polarization, The Spanish and Portuquese Inquisition’s methods to uncover hidden beliefs and motivations, The Tea Party and the Recent Rise of Right-Wing racism, Mass Incarceration and American Racism, Slavery’s Transgenerational Impact on Southern Personality, and the Unconscious Wishes behind Nuclear Armaments and Wars. -- The Journal of Psychohistory https://psychohistory.com/the-journal-of-psychohistory/

I identify that as postmodernist with the attendant problems inherent in the academic culture of anti-capitalism, anti-individualism, anti-reason. They dominate, but they do not control. Here at the University of Texas, I have my quibbles with the Salem Institute and the other fans of Ayn Rand at the McCombs School of Business but here they are, doing their best to keep the syllogisms and money flowing. 

Psychohistory

Psychohistory uses psychoanalytical theory and sociological research methods to examine the psychological origins and motivations for the social and political behavior of significant individuals, groups, and nations, both past and present, as well as psychological aspects of historical and current events. The goal of psychohistory is to understand the causes of human destructiveness and benevolence.

Psychohistory attempts to understand how historical and current events are shaped by individual and group psychologies, as well as how the past and the present influence the psychologies of individuals and groups. 

Early influential works of psychohistory include Wilhelm Reich's The Mass Psychology of Fascism (1933) and Erich Fromm's Escape from Freedom (1941), which examined psychological motivations behind political ideologies. Eric Erikson's biography of Martin Luther, Young Man Luther: A Study in Psychoanalysis and History (1958), was one of the first psychobiographies of a famous historical figure, and many contemporary biographies now include aspects of psychobiography. Lloyd deMause (1931–2020) is widely viewed as the founder of psychohistory as a formal academic discipline, beginning in the 1970s. Psychohistory, however, remains controversial, and many traditional historians are reluctant to attribute major human events to the psychology of individuals or groups. -- “Psychohistory,” in The Gale Encyclopedia of Psychology, Editor Jacqueline L. Longe, Vol. 2. 4th ed.


See also:

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS

ArmadilloCon versus Artificial Intelligence 

The Remarkable Story of Risk 

Knowledge Maps

Visualizing Complex Data 

A Chronology of Recent Historical Periods  

Karl Marx and the Dustbin of History 

When Did the Great Depression Begin? 

Contemporary Reports: Panics or Puffery?