Necessary Facts: Psychohistory from Asimov’s Foundation to Big Data

Psychohistory had no academic definition before Isaac Asimov penned his Foundation Trilogy 1942-1953. In the 1970s the academic pursuit of psychohistory began as the application of psychoanalysis (Freud) to explain of the events of history. Alternate meaning came from attempting to explain individual psychology in terms of historical context. Eventually, in our time of big data and artificial intelligence, Asimov’s intention of a mathematical treatment of large scale historical events is a real though still putative pursuit. It is an easy claim (1 below) that no doctoral research program in history includes “psychohistory” in the title.

Nevertheless, Asimov's intention has been understood. See for example, "Towards Asimov's Psychohistory: Harnessing Topological Data Analysis, Artificial Intelligence and Social Media Data to Forecast Societal Trends" by Isabela Rocha, Institute of Political Science of the University of Brasilia. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03446 and as edited arXiv:2407.03446v1 ) Rocha wrote: "In the age of big data and advanced computational methods, the prediction of large-scale social behaviors, reminiscent of Isaac Asimov's fictional science of Psychohistory, is becoming increasingly feasible."

In addition, biologist and systems researcher Salva Duran-Nebreda also found Asimov's suggestion compelling: "Recent advances in complex systems research, computer-based simulations, and large-scale databases, are paving the way towards fully developing a mathematical theory of human history." ("Rashevsky’s dream: A physico-mathematical foundation of history and culture," Metode Science Studies Journal, Issue 13.)

Before the Renaissance, the depiction of a better world was always a previous golden age. This is in the Old Testament and it is in Hesiod’s Works and Days. Only with the Renaissance did there come a new idea: that we could create a better society. At root, the idea was a resurrection of Plato’s Republic but it soon became more than that because different philosophers had other ideas of what constituted a good society. Moreover, a causal vector in the rise of capitalism came from predictive mathematics. The exploration of gambling outcomes by Fermat and Pascal led quickly to the monetization and fungibility of risk. The statistical likelihood of future events was predictable — and therefore (theoretically) controllable.

Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy was a child of its own time. Personal criticism of Asimov comes from his actions toward women at science fiction conventions and other gatherings. He, too, was a child of his time. First, science fiction of the Golden Age was a medium for boys. Girls were interested in science, of course, and political leaders with foresight encouraged an influx of young women into university science classes. (See “The Legacy of Vannevar Bush (Part 3)” published here June 1, 2025.) The primary actors in the Foundation Trilogy are men. Deeper than that, in Foundation and Empire (1952; originally, book two in the series) when Bayta Darrell attempts to outline her analysis of Foundation politics to her husband, his father, and uncle, Toran Darrell leans over and puts his hand over her mouth.

The Industrial Revolution was the cultural shift that created and allowed science fiction itself as apart from fable. Jules Verne and H. G. Wells were preceded by John Leonard Riddell, inventor of the binocular microscope, professor of chemistry, working geologist and botanist, and author and publisher of Orrin Lindsay’s Plan of Aerial Navigation, with a Narrative of His Explorations in the Higher Regions of the Atmosphere, and His Wonderful Voyage Round the Moon! (Rea's Power Press, New Orleans, 1847) (Cited on NecessaryFacts here.) Orrin Lindsay and his companion, an instrument maker, are both men, of course. A hundred years later, the world was changing. Many women science fiction authors hid their sex with pseudonyms, but others did not.

Of course, previous science fiction placed its conflicts in worlds with troubles: no troubles; no story. Nonetheless, foundational to that was a general optimism that the future would evolve and be ever-better. H. G. Wells warned twice that the coming World War Two would bring an end to civilization. But it was ultimately only a temporary pause. He knew that some people would follow a would-be tyrant and rally against a rocket into outer space, but into the cosmos do go the rocket and the young couple.

Two years ago (almost to date), I was having my stem cells harvested and ahead of that to pass the time while the tubes were in, I bought an armload of science fiction books at ArmadilloCon 45. Ecological disaster is the new normal. And unlike the science fiction of the Golden Age solving the problem does not create a better world—because the problem does not get solved. They just all go down the drain together.

Hari Seldon was right: the intellectual leaders of our empire of science fiction cannot imagine a world other than the one they know. To even label the years 1941 to 1965, the “Golden Age of science fiction” is to admit the poverty of the present. And yet, I was, indeed, having my stem cells harvested.

Contrary to that Asimov’s own creation of the word “psychohistory” launched the academic studies that also use that name.

The Journal of Psychohistory has been publishing quarterly since 1973, originally as The History of Childhood Quarterly and since 1976 as The Journal of Psychohistory. It is somewhat unique in the world of academic publishing in being one of very few journals not published by a large publishing house or by a University Press, subsidized by university funds. It has been independently published by Lloyd deMause for more than 40 years.

The JOP has been a place where many authors have been able to see their work published in more than 800 articles, as well a several hundred book reviews and review essays. We welcome contributions to a new section that will run from time to time, Psychohistorical Perspective on Current Events.

Recent issues include articles such as: A “Backward Engineering” view into how atrocities can be performed mechanistically and without feeling or guilt, how Politics Can Be Seen as Reflecting Borderline Polarization, The Spanish and Portuquese Inquisition’s methods to uncover hidden beliefs and motivations, The Tea Party and the Recent Rise of Right-Wing racism, Mass Incarceration and American Racism, Slavery’s Transgenerational Impact on Southern Personality, and the Unconscious Wishes behind Nuclear Armaments and Wars. -- The Journal of Psychohistory https://psychohistory.com/the-journal-of-psychohistory/

I identify that as postmodernist with the attendant problems inherent in the academic culture of anti-capitalism, anti-individualism, anti-reason. They dominate, but they do not control. Here at the University of Texas, I have my quibbles with the Salem Institute and the other fans of Ayn Rand at the McCombs School of Business but here they are, doing their best to keep the syllogisms and money flowing.

Psychohistory

Psychohistory uses psychoanalytical theory and sociological research methods to examine the psychological origins and motivations for the social and political behavior of significant individuals, groups, and nations, both past and present, as well as psychological aspects of historical and current events. The goal of psychohistory is to understand the causes of human destructiveness and benevolence.

Psychohistory attempts to understand how historical and current events are shaped by individual and group psychologies, as well as how the past and the present influence the psychologies of individuals and groups.

Early influential works of psychohistory include Wilhelm Reich's The Mass Psychology of Fascism (1933) and Erich Fromm's Escape from Freedom (1941), which examined psychological motivations behind political ideologies. Eric Erikson's biography of Martin Luther, Young Man Luther: A Study in Psychoanalysis and History (1958), was one of the first psychobiographies of a famous historical figure, and many contemporary biographies now include aspects of psychobiography. Lloyd deMause (1931–2020) is widely viewed as the founder of psychohistory as a formal academic discipline, beginning in the 1970s. Psychohistory, however, remains controversial, and many traditional historians are reluctant to attribute major human events to the psychology of individuals or groups. -- “Psychohistory,” in The Gale Encyclopedia of Psychology, Editor Jacqueline L. Longe, Vol. 2. 4^th ed.

Necessary Facts

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Psychohistory from Asimov’s Foundation to Big Data

No comments:

Post a Comment