Monday, March 14, 2016

Convicted by a Hair: Laboratory Misconduct in the Courtroom

Science Magazine recently posted a self-quiz on forensics (see here). The results are important because so many of us know so little about what actually is, and is not, science. (I scored just over the median.) Most informative - and disturbing to me - were these two:

  • Twenty-six of 28 FBI hair analysts who were investigated provided testimony or submitted laboratory reports with “grossly exaggerated” data that often helped prosecutors.
  • Very small amounts of DNA can lead to false positives…. Analysts have picked up DNA transferred from one person to another by way of an object that both of them have touched, or from one piece of evidence to another when two items jostled against each other in an evidence bag.

On the upside, from that quiz, bite marks have been disallowed as evidence here in Texas. Unfortunately, tire tracks, shoe prints, lip prints, and repressed dreams were not part of that decision.

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS
The Fallibility of Fingerprinting
Star of Wonder: Arguments over the Christmas Star
Austin Energy 2016 Regional Science Festival
Impossible Usually is Not

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Before Darwin

John Leonard Riddell (1807-1865) completed a bachelor's degree at Rensellaer Academy and was later granted a master's for his field work in botany. He earned doctorates in medicine from the Ohio Reformed Medical College (1834) and from the Medical College of Ohio (1836). He taught chemistry at the University of Louisiana (1839-1865) while at the same time he served as chief melter at the New Orleans Mint (1839-1848). Though loyal to the Union, he was the postmaster at New Orleans during the Confederacy.


“Marine and lacustrine beds of marly earth, formed unknown ages ago, are often met with, which, under the microscope, prove to consist, sometimes, wholly of the sileceous shells of diatomaceous animalcules, frequently bearing a precise resemblance to the living forms which now abound in all our stagnant waters.  But in the more conspicuous fossil remains occurring in the geological strata of different ages, important modifications of structure are apparent; certain species of animals and plants prevailing for a while, becoming extinct, and being succeeded by others of a modified type.

“Without unduly dwelling upon this subject, it is worthy to be remarked, that at least one great lesson may be learned from the study of these organic remains; especially from contemplating those of the more highly organized types, namely: That as we, in the brief day of our actual observation, have seen organic individuals begin and end their respective lives; organic varieties, as of fruit, &c., appear, flourish, and decay; and even organic species to become extinct, as the Dodo and the Irish Elk; so may we infer, from the inspection of the remains of successive extinct races of beings, that all species or kinds, as such, have begun their career, will flourish for, we know not how long, and will ultimately decay and disappear; their places to be supplied by modified species and kinds.

"The observed average duration of individual beings varies, from a few hours, as is exemplified in the minute world of life revealed by the microscope,--as in the Vorticella ramose, different species of Mucor, &c.,--to a few centuries, as is inferred to be exemplified in whales, elephants and forest trees. What naturalists call varieties, possess a duration extending, more or less well marked, through, perhaps four or five generations of individuals. Species, so called, have a much longer life. Concerning the average duration of species, nothing very reliable is known; perhaps a thousand successive individual generations might retain to the last, the essential specific characteristics. To pursue this subject further, by attempting to conjecture the duration of organic races and natural orders, would be profitless, inasmuch as mere conjecture would alone provide  us foundation to build upon. Nevertheless, a careful study of the organic remains which geological researches have brought to light, give strong color of truth to the general conclusion, that all organic matter is in a state of continued change; the progress of which, though often too slow for our direct appreciation, is, in the limitless flight of long successive ages, not the less certain.”

J. L. Riddell, M.D., Professor of Chemistry, Introductory Lecture, Delivered on November 18th, 1851, Before the Medical Class, University of Louisiana, New Orleans, “On Our Knowledge of Nature, the Natural Sciences, and certain Truths revealed by the Microscope.”

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

The ANA National Money Show 2016

I attended the “National Money Show” of the American Numismatic Association from March 3 thru 5 in Dallas.  It was my first ANA convention since 2004.  I served as an Exhibit Judge for both “Geography” and “Best of Show.”  I also delivered a “Money Talks” presentation, “From Texas to the Moon With John Leonard Riddell" (a version on this blog here.)  Over all, the show was a waste of time for me, though I did manage to salvage the experience.  The failure point was the absence of the videographer for my lecture. These presentations are never well attended. My goal was to make a recording for the ANA Library. As it was, bringing my wife doubled the audience.

(These comments are based on posts to the ANA website, www.money.org, under Community/Forums.)

This was my first convention since Pittsburgh 2004. Before that, I made New York 2002, Ft. Lauderdale 2000, Cincinnati 1998, Cleveland 1997, Denver 1996, Detroit 1994 (the year I joined; and I lived in the area). And I write for The Numismatist. So, I know people; people know me. I also participate in online groups such as CoinTalk.com. Also, I have been an exhibit judge for the ANA as well as for the Michigan State Numismatic Society, so, again, working this show, I had some social context. 
 
Approaching the ANA convention
these were fans of "Walker/Stalker"
a zombie convention.

Getting closer....

Front of the line!!
(For the zombie convention.)
The upside for me was working as an Exhibit Judge. I spent the better part of the day carefully reading displays about the art and science of the forms and uses of money.  
 
Meanwhile, at the ANA Convention...
I also used the bourse floor to validate the new book on Netherlands Gold Ducats (reviewed on the ANA website here ). It is a nice book. But before I gave it any stronger reviews than I already have, I wanted to test it on the floor against actual coins. As it was, I found 10 ducats on the floor and condemned eight of them as unofficial. They were probably good gold of full weight, but they were misattributed.
 
A modern official restrike of the coin issued from
1556 to 1817 and then from 1817 to present.
And, although I am not a collector, I did find a couple of historical items for myself. One was a little 6-krajczar billon coin, struck for the Hungarian revolution of 1848-1849. The other was a little dinar of Maximilian II 1586 Kremnica Mint. All together I spent $25 on the pair. 
 
Zombie hunters.
(You don't get this with coin hunters.)
Meeting new people is always a part of any ANA convention. My wife and I had a good time at dinner with a couple of the other judges, Halbert Carmichael and Steve Ippolito. 

The guys at Banknote Central -- Diego Pamio, Julio Staude, and Alejandro Dutto - demoed their software for me. It seemed pretty powerful and anyone with a serious collection to manage, or any dealer with inventory to track, would be a likely customer.
My local coin guys showed up.
In the same vein, Christina Chow of Collectors.Com was nice enough to explain her company's business to me. In fact, she said that they might extend an opportunity to partner with Banknote Central.
With my favorite editor
Todd Pollock of BLUCC Photos took photographs of three of my purchases. His price was reasonable ($8 each) and I am looking forward to the images.

The best part of any numismatic convention is what you did not expect to learn. I was sitting at a table waiting for the dealer and the guy next to me was admiring a banknote. It was French Overseas Territories, a nice note with a fair price to go with it, but way beyond my interest. I asked him where it was from. Neither of us recognized the territory.  So, he googled it.  We both were even more puzzled. The note showed Africans and grass huts. "They're gonna be pretty cold in Newfoundland," I said. He googled it again and got the same answer.  

Aluminum but still pretty.
That night, in my room, I fired up my computer and read about St. Pierre et Miquelon. It is the only French Overseas Territory in North America.  Following the French-Indian Wars, it stayed with France. Over the years it changed hands as a result of this treaty or that. For some years, it apparently was unpopulated. During World War II, the official government was supposed to be under Vichy, but the people kicked them out and went Free French. The banknote series is intended for all of the territories in general, with the specific territory added as an overprint. Hence, the tropical theme for the very untropical St. Pierre et Miquelon. Then, I found a set of uncirculated 1F and 2F coins, which I added to my collection. The obverse features a woman with wings on her head. I have them from other French colonies with my set of Mercury numismatics.

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS

Monday, February 29, 2016

Numismatic Truthseekers

Joel J. Orosz is currently the Distinguished Professor of Philanthropic Studies at Johnson Center for Philanthropy of Grand Valley State University in Grand Rapids, Michigan. I know Joel through the Numismatic Bibliomania Society. His most recent effort in our hobby is his co-authoring Truthseeker: The Life of Eric P. Newman (Dallas: Ivy Press, 2015). Working with Leonard Augsburger and Roger W. Burdette, he outlined the lifetime achievements of one of the greatest names in numismatics, and certainly one of the most productive and innovative numismatists in our time.  

Eric P. Newman came to numismatics as most collectors do: a grandfather gave him a coin. Soon, he was saving his allowances and going downtown to a coin dealer's shop. Newman continued his hobby after he graduated from MIT and completed a law degree at Washington University in St. Louis. After the death of  "Colonel" Edward Howland Robinson Green, that estate's lawyers were challenged to dispose properly of a monstrous assortment of uncatalogued rarities. Working through them, and partnered with his old friend, coin dealer Burdette Johnson, Newman came to know the leaders of numismatics in the early middle of the 20th century. It was a wilderness, a no-man's-land of fables, rumors, and blue sky sales. Encouraged by Wayte Raymond, Newman began to dig in the available records.

Among his many achievements were the uncloaking of the 1804 Dollars, the discovery of the true origin of the U.S. Dollar Sign, and the organization and presentation of colonial and Revolutionary paper money in The Early Paper Money of America

But that is Newman. As for Joel, for all of his memberships, even though he graduated from Kalamazoo College (1975-1979), and works in Grand Rapids, Joel never joined the Michigan State Numismatic Society. When I edited the MSNS Mich-Matist 2004-2007, I ran a "Wanted" poster like this, but no  one took me up on it.  So, I asked the current editor, Mike Strub, to run this one.

This week, I will be in Dallas for the ANA "World's Fair of Money" national convention.  On Thursday and Friday, I will be judging exhibits. On Saturday, I am delivering a presentation, "From Texas to the Moon with John Leonard Riddell."  You can read the primary points on this blog, here. I expanded that work for the ANA Numismatist. They published it as "The Riddle of J. L. Riddell" in April 2014. My talk in Dallas will include material not presented elsewhere from his narrative of "Orrin Lindsay's Plan of Aerial Navigation" (1847).  Riddell was apparently the first working scientist to publish a science fiction story.

My review of the Newman biography is an ANA Website Blog article here. 

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
William Sheldon: Psychologist, Numismatist, Thief
John F. Jord: Forgery and Fraud in Numismatics
Numismatics: The Standard of Proof in Economics
Numismatics: History as Market

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Austin Energy Regional Science Festival

This was my fifth year judging the projects entered in the Behavioral and Social Sciences category.  The field was crowded. Eight teams of judges were assigned to the 57 entrants. Each team chose one participant to advance to the second round of judging. Among those eight, we chose first through fifth place awards. The top three were advanced to the state competition. In addition, a select committee of judges chose Best of Fair awards from all categories. Those also advanced, of course. Various organizations, including Austin Energy, granted special prizes to outstanding projects. Although we judges adhered to the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair standards, the independents could apply their own metrics.
My Choice for 1st Place

With any large set, the elements can be sorted many ways. With years of experience, the process committee has a pretty good insight into the abstracts. So, the sets tend to be more or less even. It was the “less” side of that that I found difficult. We know that it is likely that any one group could have more projects that were superior to any projects from some other group. Yet, each conveniently chosen group in Behavioral had only one project allowed to advance to the next round.  The same method applied to other categories. On the other hand, computers and robotics were under-represented this year.

It is also clear that some schools invest a lot of resources in this. Over the past five years, I have seen interesting projects fall just a bit short for lack of mentoring. 
My choice for 2nd Place
Buried by the process

Judging begins with individuals. We then get together and seek consensus. If you advocate well for your choices, you can carry the day for your prodigies. On the other hand, social capital pays dividends; and a judge who is a psychology professor necessarily has more of it. Judging is a gestalt, not a tally.

The underlying problem is that all of these projects are winners. Eighty-five percent of success is showing up. Decisions are made by those who show up. These 2200 from 3rd through 12th grades in 12 counties representing 21 school districts, plus charter schools, private schools, and home schools, were the ones who did the work.  It is easy to say that the median grade is a C+, but the median grade at a science fair is really an A-minus.
A popular subject
handled with finesse
but lost in the process

Behavioral and Social Science Middle School Winners.
  • 1st Sophie Polidoro, Canyon Ridge, “How does text color affect retention?”
  • 2nd Cameron Ferweda, Canyon Ridge, “How do certain foods affect peoples' reaction time and memory?”
  • 3rdJessica Cummings, Canyon Ridge, “How does age affect how people focus on abnormalities in their environment?”
  • 4th Allie Cermak, Round Rock Christian Academy MS, “Circadian Rhythm Your Brain's Clock”
  • 5th Robinson Lopez, Dripping Springs, “Picture Perfect”

Behavioral and Social Science High School Winners.
So much talent crammed in
next to each other.
  • 1st Curtis Harrison and Nicole Deere, Vista Ridge, “The Effect of the Sensation of Fear versus Reward on Learning Capabilities, Short-Term and Long-Term Memory in Procambarus clarkii,”
  • 2nd Travis Cantwell, Veritas Academy, “The Fatigue Effect: Aural and Cognitive Exhaustion in Children with Cochlear Implants”
  • 3rd Joselyne Flores-Vivas and Aimee Heim, Vista Ridge, “Effects of Rubik's Cube Design on Speed”
  • 4th Sadaf Karim, Renaissance Academy, “How Do Fears Change By Age and Gender?”
  • 5th Kristin Hauck, Bowie High School, “The Effect of External Factors on Short Term Memory”
 The American Psychological Association gave a special award to Harrison and Deere for their work with the crayfish, Procambarus clarkii.  BioAustin recognized Cameron Ferweda’s research. Thomas Wintenburg of Vista Ridge entered a mathematics project on “Reducing the Cost of U.S. Military Bases.” He was singled out by the U.S. Air Force, Austin Energy, and the Mu Theta Alpha mathematics honor society.

Travis Cantwell's original research deserves special attention. Children with certain hearing deficits are give cochlear implants. It solves the hearing problem. The secondary consequence is cognitive fatigue. Even as a child, Cantwell noticed that his sister tired easily. We judges argued his research project back and forth. The problem was that we could not have two first places. So, push came to shove. The bottom line was that his advocate pushed when I shoved. The crayfish won. It was not fair. We should call them science un-fairs.

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Retraction Watch

Let me tell you: 20% of scientists are crooks - and that includes me.  They lie about facts and figures. They steal from their graduate and post-graduate and post-doctoral assistants. They fail to inform subjects of consequences (because, in fact, they invented the subjects).


Retraction Watch reports the facts. (See  here: http://retractionwatch.com/)

My own sins: fewer and far between.  I publish the "same" article in multiple venues. Cognizant of the difficulty, I always make some small change and (usually) reference that fact. But I am aware of the fact. With informal writing, it is not a big deal. With Federally-funded scientific research it is a big deal. Even if the writing is new, re-using an illustration will force a retraction.

People have done to prison. Just put "researcher went to prison" in your search engine.

On my passive blog, CSI:Flint 2010, I was inspired to bring the Office of Research Integrity to middle school students who were interested in science and police work. "Don't waste your motivation on CSI," I said. "That is like the physics of Star Trek.  If you love science and want to do police work, go for the Office of Research Integrity."

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Science Fair Science Fraud
An Abundance of Talent
Monsters from the Id
Biobash: Chamber Replicates Success

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Mardi Gras Doubloons Celebrate Life

Mardi Gras is the last party before Lent. In New Orleans, among other kinds of trinkets such as necklaces, the krewes of floats throw doubloons. 
From left to right: 
American Ingenuity, Atlas, Triumphs of Arts and Sciences, Love that American Money
One side announces the krewe. The other usually is in line with a theme for the year. Many of the krewes are named for pagan gods and goddesses. Many are anodized for the liturgical colors of Easter: white, gold, red, green, and purple. They also can be found in blue, etc.


Coin of the Realm, Inventions and Discoveries, The Sciences
As my username is often "Mercury" I have a lot of those, as well as his analogs, Hermes and Thoth. 
All Things Beautiful and the Krewe of Pegasus
I also have Atlases. Overall, having bought mixed lots from dealers over the years, I have assembled a box of good wishes, celebrations, and honors that are meaningful to me.  They make nice hand-outs at parties and meetings, especially among my Objectivist friends.

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Industrial Medals: the Currency of Fame 
Numismatics: History as Market 
Numismatics: the Standard of Proof in Economics 
The Objective Virtues of Stamp Collecting

Monday, February 8, 2016

Green Lantern Outshines Green Hornet

The Green Lantern (2011, Martin Campbell) not only kept to the story line, it took itself seriously.  The Green Hornet (2011, Michel Gondry) failed to make use of a rich story line, and was a joke on itself. 

Movies like these are always made for the fans. Many of those - perhaps most- are established followers to some degree or other.  In addition, the producers always hope to draw upon the millions who do not know the story, and who are looking for something new. They will become the new fans for next release. 

 Of those who enjoyed Lord of the Rings, only a minority slogged through three volumes of elvish poetry and grammar, and only a minority of them read The Silmarillion.  I know for a fact that many of my conservative comrades on GaltsGulchOnline.com did not read Atlas Shrugged either before or after seeing the movies. And few who did have read The Virtue of Selfishness. 

While I knew about Kato, I did not know Lenore Case (a constant as Britt Reid’s secretary), or Michael Axford (a reporter in two movies in 1940 and 1941, now the editor, played by Edward James Olmos.)  However, Wikipedia is our common memory. That said, when I was about three, we had a Hudson Hornet and being green, I called it The Green Hornet, so I must have known the radio show. And, as a young adult, I learned that Britt Reid was a grandnephew of John Reid, the Lone Ranger.  I had some other tangential exposures to the story over the years.

When they first were on the market, I had the presence of mind to buy the Dark Knight series as gifts for my wife. But it was only a couple of years ago that I picked up on the Green Lantern and several other comics, and only because of Big Bang Theory. The library and comic stores were both big helps. So, I am not a trufan, I confess.

Not only did Michel Gondry and Seth Rogen (star and writer with Evan Goldberg) fail to make the best use of a developed narrative, they besmirched it. From radio into movies, television, and several comic publishers, the Green Hornet has had a complex career, and several incarnations. In this version, Britt Reid’s contempt for everyone around him, especially Kato, and Kato’s servility were sickening. Given the recorded history of Lenore Case since 1936, Cameron Diaz’s talent was wasted. In the year 2011, she could have come out early as the brains of the group. And she should not have needed to kick Britt in the nuts. By 2011, he should have been a better person.

The Green Lantern held true to the story, and was written and played as seriously as a comic book can be. Although Hal Jordan is a swaggering jet jockey, he is not an idiot. And he is not mean. And his serious side is evident from the first, so that when he is called upon to be heroic on an inter-galactic scale, it is believable in the context of the story.

"In brightest day, in blackest night,
No evil shall escape my sight.
Let those who worship evil's might,

Beware my power, Green Lantern's light !"

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Nutrients and Beer Hallmark Austin Food Culture


Fitppl is a local firm that makes plant-based “superfood” supplements.  Each measured serving of both their cocoa and blueberry and their vanilla and goji flavor powders provides 16 grams of raw, organic plant protein, at 90 calories with 2 grams of fiber and less than 1 gram of sugar. Their powders have no artificial sweeteners, so-called “natural” flavors, or stevia.  The protein superfood blends are made from oat grass, barley grass, and spirulina. They are gluten-free, of course. Seeeking always to reduce the plastic footprint, they provide a wooden scoop for measuring servings. 

They also formulate a supplement from fresh-water and salt-water algae as well as cereal grasses. It specifically delivers a mix of chlorophyll, enzymes, vitamins, and anti-oxidants.

You can find them online at fitppl.com., but they also market through some retailers. They were the January Product of the Month at Wheatsville Co-Op here in Austin.
  
I met Eric from the Alltech Kentucky Brewing and Distilling Company at my neighborhood Whole Foods.  
They age their beer in whiskey barrels. The flavor experience was rich and rewarding, and the alcohol level was only 8%, not much more than an over-hopped IPA.  And it tasted a lot better.  
Find them online at www.kentuckyale.com or in person at your neighborhood Whole Foods. They sell in 4-packs and singles because it is a bit pricey. Nonetheless, when you deserve a treat, it can’t be beat.

Previously on Necessary Facts

Friday, January 29, 2016

In Suspect Terrain

According to most geologists, plate tectonics explains the major features of Earth’s surface. Continental land masses floating on the magma mantel crash into each other over hundreds of millions of years. This forms mountains, and therefore valleys, of course. The mountains wear down. Their rocks are ground fine, mixed with vegetation and animal remains, and become topsoil. Several times, oscillations of glaciers moved forward and retreated, carving valleys, forming rivers and lakes, and then melting. In their reversals, they left behind huge boulders and other “exotic” materials.  Geologist Anita Harris used to believe that, also. Over the course of her career, she came to doubt that the story is so simple.  Plate tectonics has a place. It does explain some facts. It does not explain everything.

Like medieval astronomers adding epicycles to fit their ever-better measurements with astrolabes, the modern geologists posit smaller, localized land masses that bump into continents in order to explain mountain ranges and other features that would contradict plate tectonics.

I confess that my geology is weak. I do not have it in my head. I rely on websites such as this one from the University of California at Berkeley to remind me which came first, the Silurian, Ordovician, or Cambrian.

It did not detract from the book. I read through almost all of it with only a few stops.  The bigger picture is easy to perceive.

John McPhee’s biography of Anita G. Harris is also a geological travelogue through the eastern United States. Harris was born in Brooklyn. The sands of Coney Island have garnet in them. McPhee and Harris travel through the Alleghenies, down into Ohio, across into Illinois.  The book opens with an eastward journey and then treks back.  That meandering narrative has islands of detail about  Harris’s career, and her marriages to other geologists.

(You can find a list of her 32 papers in 25 years papers here.

Like Irons in the Fire, about modern cattle rustlers, and The Curve of Binding Energy, a biography of John Wheeler, In Suspect Terrain immerses the reader in McPhee’s experience of a new subject.  He is an able student, and an engaging teacher.

Geology is not easy. One of my criminal justice instructors said that cops at a crime scene do not spend enough time with dirt and glass.  So, I took a geology class. It was a “local lab” course with a lot of outside work in our own neighborhood. For the semester project, we went to a quarry and assembled collections of fossils.  (Someone gave me a trilobite. I never found one on my own.)  I thought that I would learn the local rocks and minerals like the stars in constellations. Nope. Geologists keep tons of rocks labeled in cases because of the enormous inventory of types and kinds.  You can learn the easy ones: igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary… obsidian, marble, limestone, granite, flint, … After that, you have to love categorizing and cataloguing. It is as bad as biology. Contrary to physics and mathematics, geology is a study that rewards maturity, rather than intuition. Anita Harris’s woe is the armies of young geologists lured by the Siren song of plate tectonics.

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS


Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Birds of a Feather

One picture is worth 1000 words.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani asked Pope Francis 

to pray for him after Vatican talks.

Lest we forget ...

"We grew up together," said Gates, after Jobs's passing.
(Guardian UK from "Digital World" conference 2007.)
PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS
The Genius of Design
Is Physics a Science?
Fortune Cookie in Hex Code
Brian Krebs's "Spam Nation"




Saturday, January 23, 2016

Passwords

Are your passwords strong enough to resist a brute force attack? Passwords are just about dead. Many systems now offer “two factor identification.” You give them your cell phone number and you have to use both a password and a code number sent to  the phone for your log in.  But passwords continue. They are easy for administrators. They are part of the common culture.

Steve Gibson has the engineer’s “knack.” (See the Dilbert video here.His company, Gibson Research Corporation (here)sells a wide range of computer security products and services. He also offers many for free. Among the freebies is Haystack: How Big is Your Haystack – and how well is your needle hidden? (here)  This utility provides a metric for measuring password security.

It is pretty easy to do yourself, if you like arithmetic. 26 upper case letters, 26 lower case, 10 digits, 33 characters (with the space) for 95 printable ASCII characters in the common set.  So, if you have an 8-character password that is 95 to the 8th power possible combinations: 6.634 times 10 to the 15th power or over 6-and-a-half quadrillion. If you could try a million guesses a second, it would take 6.5 billion seconds or just over 200 years. (60 seconds/minute * 60 minutes/hour * 24 hours/day * 365.25 days / year* 200 years =6.3 billion .)

Gibson Research makes all of that automatic. Just key in your password, and it tells you how long it would take to crack.

Cracking passwords is a routine activity for a hacker. They have tools.  At one meet-up for hackers, the speaker told us, “If you have to use brute force, you are not thinking.”  They do not type in a million guesses per second, of course. They have programs to do that. Also, most websites just do not allow that kind of traffic: you cannot do a million guesses per second. What the hackers do is break in to a site, such as Target, Home Depot, LinkedIn, or eHarmony, download all of the log files, and then, on their own time, let their software attack the data offline.

Also, hackers do not use the same computers that you and I do. They start with gaming machines because the processors in those are built for high-speed calculation. They then gang those multiple processors to create massively parallel computers.  The calculators from GRC show the likely outcome for brute force by both a “regular” computer and a “massive cracking array.”

If someone got hired today at a typical midrange American corporation, their password might just be January2016. If, like most of us, they think that are really clever, it ends with an exclamation point: January2016!  Hackers have databases of these. They start with standard dictionaries, and add to them all of the known passwords that they discover.

One common recommendation is to take the first letters of a phrase known only to you and personal only to you. My mother had naturally red hair for most of her life. She was born in 1929 and passed in 2012. So, “My mother’s red hair came from a bottle” becomes mmrhcfab19292012. According to Gibson Research, brute force guessing with a massive cracking array would take over 26 centuries.

Gioachino Rossini premiered his opera, William Tell, in 1829. “William & Tell = 1829” would take a massive parallel cracking machine about 1 million trillion centuries to guess.  However, Five + One = 27 could be done in under 1.5 million centuries.

Remember, however, that a dictionary attack will crack any common phrase.  With over 1.7 million veterans of the United States Marine Corp, someone—probably several hundred someones—has “Semper Fi” for a password. Don’t let that be you. A brute force attack would need only 39 minutes, but that is not necessary: a cracker's dictionary should have "Semper Fi" in it already.

(Above, I said that cracking passwords is a “routine activity” for a hacker. “Routine activities” is the name of theory of crime.  Attributed to sociologists Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen, routine activities theory says that crime is what criminals do, independent of such “social causes” as poverty. See Routine Activity Theory on Wikipedia here: )

PREVIOUSLY ON NECESSARY FACTS