Monday, April 25, 2011

The CSI Effect

Jurors with less education demand scientific evidence.  Educated jurors trust the prosecutor.

History can be funny.  Typically, progress comes from ferment.  People in cities interact in multipicative modes.  Entrepreneurs, artists, and scientists attract others of their kind.   Alternately, the peripheries bring new ideas to the centers.  Eastern Michigan University is a midrange midwest state school, located in Ypsilanti, in the shadow of its neighbor in Ann Arbor.  Unlike the U of M, EMU prides itself on teaching, not research.  Generally, the graduate students do not teach classes: they are GAs, clerical assistants, not TAs.  Classes are taught by the professors whose names appear in the course schedules.  Originally the Michigan Normal College, its motto is "Education first."  It is from EMU that Gregg Barak, Young S. Kim, and Donald E. Shelton published their paradigmatic research into juror attitudes.  "The CSI effect" did not originate with them, but they have produced the most rigorous statistical studies of it. 

Gregg Barak describes himself as a "dialectician."  He can argue any side of any topic equally well.  Among his many focus studies is the relationship between crime and the mass media reporting of it.  Young S. Kim specializes in research methods. Donald E. Shelton serves as the Chief Judge of both the Circuit and Probate Courts in Washtenaw County.  So far, they have co-authored three papers investigating and explaining the "CSI Effect."  
  • "Examining the 'CSI-effect' in the cases of circumstantial evidence and eyewitness testimony: Multivariate and path analyses," by Young S. Kim,  Gregg Barak, Donald E. Shelton; Journal of Criminal Justice 37 (2009) 452–460.
  • "A Study of Juror Expectations and Demands Concerning Scientific Evidence: Does a 'CSI Effect' Exist?" by Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law Vol 9 No 2; 367.
  • "An Indirect-Effects Model of Mediated Adjudication: The CSI Myth, the Tech Effect, and Metropolitan Jurors' Expectations for Scientific Evidence." by  Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, and Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law Vol 12 No 1. (Fall 2009)
They found that less educated jurors demand scientific evidence, whereas jurors with more education accept the prosecutor's statements prima facie.  More deeply, they theorize not a specific "effect" attributed to a widely popular franchise of television shows, but rather a general "tech effect."  They attribute that to the pervasive facts that reveal widespread ownership of iPods, laptops, and other devices among even the poorest and least educated members of jury pools.  

Karl Marx and the Dustbin of History

Like the death of Mark Twain, the imminent passing of capitalism has been predicted (or reported) for 150 years. 

Plotting the past and future of humanity is an old hobby.  In the Dialog "Cratylus", Plato recounts the story from Hesiod (Work and Days) that once, there was a Golden Age but continuous devolution has brought us to the Fifth Age, the Age of Iron, the age of war and injustice.  This, of course echoes the Eden Myth, that once upon a time, we lived in a paradise, but by our errors, we lost it.  Christianity promises a return to Paradise in the Afterlife for God’s “chosen” who find Salvation through His Son.  Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels secularized the myth by wrapping it in economics.  Marx’s theories are well-known.  His influence is undeniable.  However, Marx relied on the works of others to develop and validate his theories.  Some of the source material was in error.  Those who followed Marx –especially Marxists – accepted his assumptions without reconsideration. 
  • Marx did not question the labor theory of value.  But if labor alone gives value, we could get rich by digging holes and filling them up.  The most careful workmanship invested in the most beautiful and useful object is wasted if no one else wants it.   Modes of television were invented in the 1890s.  The first personal computer was the IBM 5100 from 1975, a solution looking for a problem.  Labor does not give value.  Value is perceived by the buyer.
  • It is famous that Marx predicted his proletarian uprisings in England or Germany and that the first so-called “communist” or socialist nation was an agricultural hinterland. 
  • When Marx predicted that the workers would obtain the modes of production, he was not thinking of employee stock option plans or employees forcing leveraged buy-outs of their operating divisions from the parent corporation.
  •  Marx complained that capitalism destroyed the natural state of women for motherhood and homemaking.
  •  Relying heavily on English history, Marx pinpointed the closing of common lands and the mass migration of former serfs into the cities to become proletarians.  But that, too, happened in Rome.  Moreover, Roman expansion, especially into Gaul, but also elsewhere, was specifically the founding of new towns surrounded by new farms – a process exhibited by the archaic (pre-classical) Greeks who colonized Middle Earth from the Crimea to Spain.  
  • Marx thought that gold was the highest form of commodity money and that money originated as commodity exchange in indirect barter.  This view is shared by capitalist (libertarian) economists today based on its being accepted by the Austrian School of Carl Menger and Ludwig von Mises.  The historical record does not support it.  
  • Marx’s theory of dialectic evolution is unvalidated (and in fact disproved) against the historical record of places not known to him, such as China, Mesoamerica, and Sub-Saharan Africa. 
Largely today, in American university classes in economics, Marx is relegated the margins of first year textbooks. The new center is held by Milton Friedman and the monetists.  Diametrically opposite Marx but also in the margins are the radical Austrians, such as Ludwig von Mises who advocate laissez-faire (which Friedman did not).   

In sociology, Marx still holds sway.  Criticisms from the left come from postmodernists who claim that there is no reality and even if there were you could not know it.  (Physicist Alan Sokol who exposed and discredited that "fashionable nonsense" is a Marxist.) There is no "right wing" - no school of individualism - in sociology, or at least, they are few and far between.  Organizations and Markets is a blog from sociologists who are influenced by the Austrian school of economics.  The four professors - Nicolai J. Foss, Peter G. Klein, Richard N. Langlois, and Lasse B. Lien - span two continents. 

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Debt: the Seed of Civilization
Venture Capital
Money as Living History
Workers Paradise Promised an End to Money

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

When Did "the Great Depression" Begin?

No mythology faces as many problems as the folktale of The Great Depression. The Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises, pointed out in Human Action that capitalists and socialists usually agree on the raw data, but then disagree on what the facts mean. In 1929, the New York Stock Exchange recorded dramatic price collapses on October 24 ("Black Thursday") and October 29 ("Black Tuesday"). What is missing is a connection between the NYSE of October 1929 and the banks of Detroit in February 1933. It was there, in Detroit, on February 14, 1933, 40 months later, and 600 miles away, that the bank failures of the Great Depression began.

To be sure, bank failures were common in the years before 1929-1933 – and so were bank openings. From 1884 to 1921, the number of banks had sextupled from 5000 to 30,000. Not only were these generally small banks – some capitalized near the minimum $25,000 – but after 1921, the new operations were often branches. The federal Comptroller of the Currency had opened the door to allow city banks to compete in towns and villages. From that point, bank failures increased, as is to be expected from increased competition. In January 1933, it seemed that the summer of 1931 had been the lowest point possible and that a recovery was unfolding. 
Depression-Era scrip issued by the City of Detroit
against property taxes due

            Speaking to a United Press reporter in Dearborn, on February 1, 1933, Henry Ford called the period 1923-1929 “the real depression.” At that time, two holding companies dominated finance in Detroit. One was the Detroit Bankers Company Group. The other was the Union Guardian Group, colloquially called “The Ford Group.” When the Union Guardian Group experienced pressure from withdrawals, it turned to the federal government for a loan. However, the Reconstruction Finance Corporation required that the Fords subordinate $7 million that the banks owed to them, which Henry Ford refused to do. President Herbert Hoover set up a meeting with Ford, Arthur Ballantine (Under Secretary of Treasury) and Roy D. Chapin (Secretary of Commerce). Chapin was a former Olds executive and co-founder of the Hudson Motor Car Company. He appealed to Ford as a fellow manufacturer. Ford replied that Hudson stock was traded on the NYSE, which Ford’s was not, and that a washout of the banking industry seemed inevitable. Chapin replied that if people do not have money to buy cars, Ford was in for hard times himself. Ford said that he felt young enough to start over from scratch. Ford said that everyone else ought to be prepared to get up a little earlier and work a little harder. He also said that he would withdraw his $25 million from the banks in the morning. He did not get to do that.


The next morning, February 14, 1933, Michigan’s governor, William Comstock, declared a banking holiday. The proclamation had been signed at 1:00 AM, published, and delivered to bankers when they arrived for the start of the business day. Two weeks later, outgoing President Hoover hesitated to declare a national bank holiday, so the newly-inaugurated President Roosevelt did just that. On March 21, 1933, the Michigan Legislature passed the McNitt-Green bill, granting the governor “dictatorial powers” over banks. Unlike Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin – to whom he was favorably compared by newspapers in those troubled times – Gov. Comstock had modest goals and eventually declined further powers to control the insurance industry as well.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Anti-Trust

The evils of anti-trust are well-known.  

Anti-trust laws assume that there is a fixed inventory of extant goods and services, that all the widgets and gadgets are like mountains and rivers: they always existed and always will be here. In fact, these are in constant flux, coming into and going out of favor with changing perceptions of utility: 78 RPM records and 5.25-inch floppy disks, just for two. As Larry the Liquidator said, the surest way to go broke is to win an ever larger share of a dying market.

The other expression of that instance is the goods and services that come into existence from invention and entrepreneurship. What did not exist at all suddenly must be regulated, controlled, distributed, monitored and mandated.

The recent prosecutions of LCD display makers is a case in point. A hundred years ago, this was cholesterol from carrot juice. A generation ago, it was a fancy, an applied lab experiment. A decade ago, it was an emerging market. Now, for people to agree among themselves on production and distribution is a crime.

“TAIWAN HANNSTAR EXECUTIVE INDICTED FOR ROLE IN LCD PRICE-FIXING CONSPIRACY at
http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2011/266070.htm
Goto the site and browse all the press releases back to June 2010.

January 13, 2011
TAIWAN HANNSTAR EXECUTIVE INDICTED FOR ROLE IN LCD PRICE-FIXING CONSPIRACY
Twenty-Two Executives Charged to Date in Global Price-Fixing Scheme
WASHINGTON — A federal grand jury in San Francisco returned an indictment against the current president of HannStar Display Corporation for his participation in a global conspiracy to fix prices of thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels, the Department of Justice announced today.
The indictment, filed today in U.S. District Court in San Francisco, charges that Ding Hui Joe, aka David Joe, conspired with others to suppress and eliminate competition by fixing the prices of TFT-LCD panels. Joe, a resident of Taiwan, is charged with participating in the conspiracy from on or about Sept. 14, 2001, until on or about Jan. 31, 2006.
TFT-LCD panels are used in computer monitors and notebooks, televisions, mobile phones and other electronic devices. By the end of the conspiracy period, the worldwide market for TFT-LCD panels was valued at $70 billion. Companies directly affected by the LCD price-fixing conspiracy are some of the largest computer and television manufacturers in the world, including Apple, Dell and Hewlett Packard.  
See these related prosecutions.
On the DoJ webpages you can search for the defendants or for TFT-LCD to find the full set of prosecutions and plea agreements.

http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2010/260175.htm
http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2010/264069.htmhttp://www.justice.gov/atr/public/press_releases/2011/266070.htm



http://nobelprize.org/educational/physics/liquid_crystals/history/
In the 1960s, a French theoretical physicist, Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, who had been working with magnetism and superconductivity, turned his interest to liquid crystals and soon found fascinating analogies between liquid crystals and superconductors as well as magnetic materials. His work was rewarded with the Nobel Prize in Physics 1991. The modern development of liquid crystal science has since been deeply influenced by the work of Pierre-Gilles de Gennes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_crystal_display
Liquid Gold: The Story of Liquid Crystal Displays and the Creation of an Industry, Joseph A. Castellano, 2005 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., ISBN 981-238-956-3.

Contemporary Reports: Panic or Puffery?

It is possible that the “Panic of 1857” is another anti-capitalist delusion?
 
Historians are trained in school to give precedence to first-hand accounts from newspapers, journals, and diaries.  However, even these must be evaluated against an objective standard.  Narratives depend on perspectives.

The anti-capitalists believe that fluctuations in prices, supplies, and demands are examples of the failure of society based on personal enterprise. The socialists claim that their government planned centralized economies would eliminate ups and downs, booms and busts, gluts and famines. History proved them half right.


We know about the "Panic of 1857" from history books that looked to sensational news stories about frenzied mobs of otherwise honest and intelligent folk hopelessly demanding the return of their hard-earned money from inept bankers forced to close their doors. The truth may be different – certainly more complicated – than this. The 1907 History of the United States by James Ford Rhodes gives the Panic of 1857 one line, never calling it by name. To Rhodes, the importance of the financial event was only that it temporarily drove “bleeding Kansas” from public attention. John Fiske’s History of the United States published in several editions by Houghton Mifflin from 1894 to 1907 says nothing about the Panic of 1857, mentioning instead the Dredd Scott Decision. However, Fiske does cover the Panics of 1837 and 1873. William Graham Sumner’s History of American Currency, published in 1874, does tell the story – including the loss of the S. S. Central America – but Sumner puts the word “panic” in quotes. Perhaps that is where it belongs.


Certainly, the Chemical Bank of New York, in its self-published history of 1913 is rightfully proud of its directors for having carefully managed the assets of depositors and thereby surviving whatever actually happened in the autumn in 1857.
We expect news to be objective, distinct from editorial comment. That was possible only after the estate of Joseph Pulitzer endowed an award fund to the Columbia School of Journalism in 1912. In the spirit of Pulitzer’s better side, the Pulitzer Prize Committee itself admits: “He crusaded against public and private corruption, filled the news columns with a spate of sensationalized features, made the first extensive use of illustrations, and staged news stunts. … Pulitzer was drawn into a bitter circulation battle with William Randolph Hearst's Journal in which there were no apparent restraints on sensationalism or fabrication of news.”


While it may well be true that "panic" was in the streets of New York City in the autum of 1857, the fact may be that this was a temporary, local event.  Bank failures - such as they were - were caused as much by the law as by economic reality.  State law demanded that banks make good on withdrawals by the end of the business day.  No other business was so constrained.  If a druggist or livery owed you money, you would wait, like any other creditor until cash came in and you got yours.  Not so with banks.  So, fear of default may well have been real for a few days.  How long that lasted and how far it spread is not well recorded.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Mere Gold is Not Enough: Hayek's "Denationalisation"

F. A. Hayek's Denationalisation of Money (1978) made a case for an open market in money, without legal tender laws, and without a government monopoly in currency.  

Hayek's thesis is two-fold.  First, that a competitive market in money will create currencies that are desirable for their enduring value.  Good money drives bad money from an open market.  Second, more broadly, until we have that happy day, we really cannot say what forms and formats will be acceptable or popular.

Breaking with tradition, Hayek stated that being limited to gold ("the wobbly anchor") is contrary to a truly free market.  Liberated from state control, there is no limit to the forms that money can take.  Hayek even suggested that a truly free market might see stable paper money backed by nothing but the credit of the issuer.  Paper money from one bank might promise payment in the paper of other banks.  Still other possibilities exist. 

It is easy see that if a bank issued too many notes then it would soon be redeeming them as a result of financial reporting. That is history.  For Hayek the more interesting problem was what to do when the market value of a bank's paper exceeds its issue price.
 "... but it could preserve this business only if it did in fact promptly buy at the current rate any of its notes offered to it.  So long as it succeeded in maintaining the real value of its notes, it would never be called upon to buy back more than a fraction of the outstanding circulation.  Probably no would doubt that an art dealer who owns the plates of the engravings of a famous artist could, so long as his works remained in fashion, maintain the market value of these engravings by judiciously selling and buying, even though he could never buy up all the existing prints." (Page 49)
This little book is dense with worthy ideas such as that. Most economists express three uses for money. Hayek defined four: cash purchases; reserves for future purchases; standard of deferred payment; unit of account.

F. A. Hayek apparently had little or no experience with numismatics.  Many of his theoretical claims are supported by facts known to those of us who study the art and science of the forms and uses of money. Other of his theoretical assertions are denied by the facts of history. And to be fair, numismatists, schooled in economics by publicly-funded (or aristocratic) institutions, also err when narrating the history of money.  The idea that coins were invented by merchants to make bullion more convenient for retail trade is the best example of such error.  Charles Seltman, the British numismatist who promoted that silly idea via the Encyclopedia Britannica, never worked behind a retail sales counter.   Similarly,  for all their theoretical knowledge Hayek and the other Austrians had no experience as merchants.

 Hayek says that it is unfortunate that there existed no complete history of the experience of government monopoly on money.  However, he does cite Murray N. Rothbard's monograph, What Has Government Done to Our Money (1963, 1974).  That work is little more than a sketch.  Like Hayek, Rothbard had little involvement with the artifacts.  Rothbard relied on "The Use of Private Tokens for Money in the United States," by B. W. Barnard from The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Aug., 1917).  That academic paper reported all known issues without regard to their actual use.  Today, Bar Cents and Immune Columbia are regarded as rare and likely saw little use in their time.  Nova Constellatio tokens really did circulate.  In short, Rothbard's data was flawed because he gave weight to an academic paper instead of going to numismatists.  Any active collector of American money could have shown him (and Hayek), the material evidence they sought to support their theories.

"The early Middle Ages may have been a period of deflation that contributed to the economic decline of the whole of Europe. ... But where, as in Northern Italy, trade revived early, we find at once all the little princes vying with one another in diminishing the coin - a process which in spite of some unsuccessful attempts of private merchants to provide a better medium of exchange, lasted throughout the following centuries until Italy came to be described as the worst money and the best writers on money." (page 34)
Yet this complaint - common among historians and cited by gold bugs - ignores one of the arguments for gold-based money: with the quantity fixed by nature, each new invention, import, or innovation caused the existing money to increase in value: hard money is worth ever more over time.  That was the case in the Middle Ages as expanding trade brought more products to market.  It is also true that warlords and generals debased their coins, a common cheat in both Roman and modern times, as well.  But that negative motivation was only part of the story.  Absent new discoveries such as the mines of Joachimstal and the looting of the Americas, deflation is a beneficial consequence of hard money.   Moreover, some strong currencies, such as the English sterling penny and the Venetian gold ducat, enjoyed international reputations.  That meant, however, that they left one place and went to another.  For a local ruler to keep his coins in his realm, the issues had to be useful only locally, otherwise the locale would quickly enjoy an influx of imported goods and a loss of currency.

One solution to that is a token currency. The strength of a monetary medium, itself durable and cheap, but also a token for precious metals that do not pass hand to hand was explored by Neil Carothers in Fractional Money (New York, J. Wiley & Sons, 1930), a book that grew out of his doctoral dissertation some years earlier.  Again this data is a century old.  We know these facts; and they support Hayek's theories.

We can see an analogy to Hayek's laissez faire banking via the stock market.  Common stock certificates are a form of money; and historically their format resembled  bank drafts, being only much larger in size.  Stock certificates were issued, endorsed, transferred, and cancelled.  With or without a declared par value their worth fluctuated on the open market.

Knowing Hayek's theory you are perfectly free to use whatever moneys you prefer.  If you live in the USA, you will find Federal Reserve Notes most liquid.  But all manner of moneys are in circulation here and now, if you only know where to look for them.

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Numismatics: the Standard of Proof in Economics
Objectivism and the Gold Standard
Money as a Crusoe Concept
Electronic Money: Coins without Realms

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

The Sociology of Freedom

Freedom (or the lack of it) does not come to each of us evenly and all at once.  This is explained in Harry Browne's classic, How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World.  That book is a nicely crafted restatement of a libertarian theory earlier expressed by Skye d'Aureous and Natalee Hall in "What if They Gave a Millennium and Nobody Came?"  (Libertarian Connection #13, reprinted in the 1981 Loompanics Main Catalog and in Loompanics Greatest Hits, 1984). 
          Harry Browne examined 14 common Traps that we allow ourselves to fall into, from family to job, to taxation, and including "Burning Issues" and "Rights."  Browne advocated a rational (logical and dispassionate) examination of each limitation on your own freedom.  You must recognize that for each gain, you must pay a price, in order to reap the reward. 
        Skye d'Aureous and Natalee Hall were at once broader and more concise. "An overall decrease in freedom for the general population does not mean an overall decrease in freedom for you, unless your actions are necessarily the same as the general population."  ...  "You will not suddenly become 100% free." They made 15 other points to elucidate the same principles. 
       In fact, these truths coincide with known perspectives from sociology.  Sociology looks at the variability in human cultural experiences and posits axioms of subjectivism.  C. Wright Mills coined the phrase "sociological imagination" which has taken on wider meanings than he intended.  Sociological imagination is the ability to see beyond your own social context to understand that of other people.  The Thomas Theorem says, "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."   Those perspectives support the suggestions of Browne and others that you do not need to become enmeshed in the social world you happen to inhabit.  In fact, we all inhabit many such spheres of life simultaneously. 
     In particular, it is a general prediction that anyone who calls themself a Republican, libertarian, or Objectivist probably has set aside some savings in gold and silver coins that protect those savings against the ravages of inflation.  Wider still, Browne would point out that a job with a fixed salary gives you less freedom to adjust your wages.  Moreover, some would also suggest that actually working for the government might be one way to stay ahead of inflation by participating in its cause.  On the other hand, even the best-paid government employee, a GS-15 (depending in the locale), will top out at about $100,000 to $120,000 per year, confortable, but not wealthy -- and certainly not capable of going to $250,000. 
     Among the wealthiest suburbs in America, measured by household income, are four around Washington DC (Forbes here).  If you want the flexibility of private employment tied to government spending, work for a think tank or a lobbyist.  Of course, for you that might be like being paid to go to prison.  Money isn't everything.  
       Therefore, Browne generally recommends being self-employed at whatever you do best, or at least working at a regular day job that rewards you for your efforts, such as sales.  Of course, that may not be for you.  Your happiness may depend on other choices you make -- and you will pay different prices for different kinds of freedom.  But that freedom is out there.
      What people believe to be true is true in its consequences. This is also dramatized in Atlas Shrugged as industrialist Hank Rearden's legal problems with the Washington planners only reflect his personal life. Even his surrender of Rearden Metal to preserve Dagny Taggart's reputation was a result of that.  If you find yourself trapped by circumstances, then you need to create your own social reality. 

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Nerd Nation

The jocks have been shoved aside.  While the Super Bowl has not withered from disinterest,  the fact remains that a significant (if unmeasured) population of  America know themselves to be geeks or nerds --  and are proud of it. 
Big Bang Theory:
Wolowicz, Leonard, Penny, Sheldon and Raj
 I  point to mainstream television programs such as CSI, NCIS, Big Bang Theory, NUMB3RS, and Psych, as well as to the foundation media such as NPR's "Science Friday" (1.3 million listeners), and the long established commercial success of the Discovery Channel and the recently rebranded Syfy ("SciFi") Channel.   It is not just that Big Bang Theory is a prime time television comedy about physicists.  To that must be added Big Blog Theory, the website that offers real physics in support of the comedy.  This is in the instant tradition of the Wolfram Mathematica pages to supplement NUMB3RS when it was on the air, 2005-2010.  On an NCIS episode, laboratory technician Abby Sciuto is waxing on about Bill Nye, the Science Guy.  Her boss, former Marine sniper Jethro Gibbs, does not get the reference.  She goes on.  "Oh," he says, "Just like Mr. Wizard."  She replies with a question mark. 

When Hugo Gernsback launched his science fiction magazines, he intended that they be for everyone.  Still, he insisted that his writers pad their stories with expositions from textbooks, to ensure that the science (however fanciful) was credible.  When John W. Campbell took over, he identified his audience specifically as educated in science, and he courted writers such as Robert Heinlein and Isaac Asimov because of their education. 

At least one good reason to take any science class.
 Fully 28% of Americans claim to have four-year degrees.  In a funny way, the show NUMB3RS reflects that.  While David Krumholtz learned his lines well, his supporting actress, Navi Rawat (Dr. Amita Ramanujan) says that she surfed the web to read popular math to help her delivery.  Beyond that, co-star Judd Hirsch actually majored in physics.  Even closer to the limit, supporting actor Dylan Bruno (Agent Colby Granger) has a bachelor's from MIT in environmental engineering.  Pauley Perrette (Abbey Sciuto of NCIS)'s degree in sociology exposed her to the related study of criminology.

Cellphones and computers have morphed into smartphones and pads.  Clearly, comedy and drama consonant with our culture must reflect that.

Also reflected in that broader culture, is the "CSI Effect" in real courtrooms.  At first, it was a complaint from prosecutors.  Lacking physical evidence, some found it hard to win a conviction.  Or so they claimed.  The problem interested criminologist Gregg Barak of Eastern Michigan University who specializes in the mass media affects on our perceptions of crime.  He enlisted his colleagues Young Kim and Donald Shelton.  They found, broadly, that in fact, the "CSI Effect" is really just a "tech effect."  We expect scientifically valid physical evidence because we live in a technological culture.  Beyond that, however, their numbers showed that jurors with less education demand more evidence.  Jurors with more education tend to take the prosecution's word for it.  Whether this correlates to time spent watching television, or solidarity within social classes is a different question. 

Also on Necessary Facts
Nerd Nation 2.0 (Danika McKellar, Felicia Day, and Natalie Portman)
Nerd Nation 3.0 (Dungeons and Dragons) 
Nerd Nation 4.0 (Gentleman's Quarterly)
Nerd Nation 4.5 (Mayim Bialik)
Where All the Children are Above Average

Saturday, March 5, 2011

The Sanction of the Victim

"The sanction of the victim" is one of the many philosophical ideas that are dramatized in Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged


We all meet conflict every day.  You have an idea that you think would benefit your department or company.  Someone else at the table disagrees and offers a different project. Typically, your opponents do not expect you to destroy yourself to meet their goals.  Sometimes they do.  We vote for taxes; and we elect others who do much more of the same in our name. 
How would you feel, if you went into a gas station or convenience store, there behind the counter was a friendly picture of Osama bin Laden?  Would you shop there again?  What if they had a bumper sticker supporting a ballot proposal for more school funding? 
If I were absolutely consistent about not sanctioning my destroyers, I would never have had a pizza from any of the many shops  in Cleveland displaying Pope John XXIII and Pres. John F. Kennedy. I read The Fountainhead at 16, and Atlas Shrugged twice through by 17, just as I was driving and dating.  Pizza was an important part of my life. 

Many years later, I found an obscure book, from 1960-64, Merchants Make History by Ernst Samhaber.  In the narratives about caravans and caravels, the author says that a good merchant does not argue religion with his client.  Still later, writing the "Internet Connections" column for The Numismatist, I discovered that some of the largest hoards of Muslim/Arabic coins are found in Latvia, Russia, Sweden, and England.  Many examples date from the European "Dark Ages."  

USSR silver ruble from Lenin's
"New Economic Policy"
At some level, civil society requires the depersonalized interactions of the marketplace. This leaves unanswered the question of where you (or I, or anyone) draw the line when you enter into exchange with someone who does not share your values.  Here in Ann Arbor, we have a record store in the old "head shop" tradition.  The walls proudly carry anti-capitalist bumperstickers and anti-imperialist demonstration signs.  I find it ironic.  But their CDs are priced right.

Confronting Post-Modernism and Conservatism

Having just spent five years at college and university (2005-2010), I had too many professors and classroom colleagues to whom I was expected to show respect as they advocated my demise. Government regulations were merely some obvious consequences of a much deeper evil. 

Ayn Rand said, "I am not primarily an advocate of capitalism, but of egoism; and I am not primarily an advocate of egoism, but of reason. If one recognizes the supremacy of reason and applies it consistently, all the rest follows."  I first read that in 1967.  So, when I had a graduate class in criminology theory in which the required readings were post-modernist philosophy - the senses are invalid; logic is a sham; reality is socially-defined: Philosophy, Crime, and Criminology by Arrigo and Williams - I was well-prepared. 

As with most classes, of the 20 or so in the room, only about five were active participants.  I know from my first university class in criminology that many do not speak up because they know that their conservative views will be argued down by the professor.  The professor commands the classroom in many ways.  The prof can take five or 50 minutes to make a point.  A student has maybe 20 seconds.  So, when I say "the class" it is not necessarly true that everyone was in accord.  With that caveat, the class nodded along with the claim that there is no absolute right and wrong, that morality is socially constructed, usually by the ruling class for its interests, that different societies have different values, all equally valid, that imperialism and sexism (including hegemonic masculinity) denigrates these other perspectives,. etc., and of course that ultimately any absolute knowledge is impossible.

Then, a woman who worked for the sheriff's department spoke up and denounced Bernard Madoff.  The failures of his investment house impacted our county's unfortunates who were now denied non-governmental aid, especially mental health services, because those charities had invested with Madoff and now were without funds.

I raised my hand.  Wouldn't the sociological perspective include the fact that these Wall Street capitialists have their own society with their own rules?  These fund managers were in the same league with Madoff. These were not little people, but professionals, so if they got cheated, that is just an outcome in their world, equally valid for them. 

Of course there were dissenting noises from actual words to groans to raised hands.  "Wait a minute!" I begged.  "So, there is a difference between right and wrong."  (Silence.)  There is a difference between right and wrong and you can know the difference between right and wrong. 

The discussion moved on.  The professor delineated two schools of post-modernism, his and the authors'.  I was satisfied that I made my point, even if no one was persuaded into an understanding they did not come in with. 

That, too, was a classroom lesson for me. 

The previous semester, I had a class in international economics.  The professor was a Marxist, one of the old school who believed that economics and history are sciences.  Most of the class were foreign students.  The largest fraction (6/20) were from China, but about a third were from Muslim/Arab countries.  Three were from different subSaharan nations.  The rest were from here and here; and three of us were Americans. One American was on the far left.  I held the right wing.  Most of the class were arrayed near the center.  These were business majors, largely, but populists and democrats, nonetheless.

One week, the subject was extractive industries.  Even my capitalist limits were tested by the stories of these Fortune 500 B-School looters who cozy up to dictators, strip the minerals, and leave the peoples and the lands worse off.  There was another subject that week as well.  As a graduate class, the workload was non-trivial.  I wrote on the other subject.  When the papers were handed back, the professor said that he was dismayed and disappointed.  Apparently, several people wrote about the good things these companies do, the roads, hospitals and schools they build.  It was not what he expected at all.

To me, the lesson was that people have their own ideas.  You can find agreement, or not.  Actually bringing new information that changes someone -- the teaching moment -- is rare. 

No one comes to a college or university with no ideas.  Mostly, we absorb what we learned at home.  Sometimes, new learning by young people awakens new processes.  But today's university students are not necessarily recent high schoolers away from home for the first time.  Education in America is driven by mature learners. The consequences of that remain to be seen as one generation replaces another in the stream.  For the present, I have to deny the complaints of conservatives, libertarians, and objectivists that college professors brainwash students, propagandizing them with barrages of falsehoods.  After one such session in Sociology 101, leaving the building, behind me on the stairwell were two girls, a full generation or more younger than I.  Said one to the other in a nattering tone of voice, "America sucks, America sucks, week after week it's the same stuff: America sucks."  Obviously, she was not buying what the instructor was selling.  She had ideas of her own to begin with; and change them as she might, that choice would be hers.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Misconduct in Science and Research

Recent news about procedural misconduct by scientists is easy to find.  However, searches of JSTOR uncovered zero articles about misconduct in scientific research from 1900 to 1950.  From 1950 to the present, 40 articles addressed the related problems.  An obvious upswing occurred after 1987. Gale CENGAGE yielded 56 titles, many of those reports of headline news about Jan Hendrik Schön and other immediacies.  On the other hand, if you search via Google or Bing for "research misconduct" or "misconduct in science" etc., there is no shortage of popular news stories and formal reports.  This summary from The New York Times is from 1991.  In fact, the NYT Articles database offers embarrassingly many such stories (link here).

Police chiefs know the easy generalization that 80% of your problems come from 20% of your addresses regardless of the neighborhood.  Crime is a universal problem. Nonetheless, variations in crime statistics show that predation and fraud are more common in some cities and states and nations than in others.  Harms flourish where they are wanted. 
So, while fraud in science research is known across all studies, it is now most common in health and medicine.  Tremendous funding is one factor.  Willy Sutton robbed banks because that's where the money was.  

And to be fair, living things are more complex than rocks and stars, so experimental results can be harder to duplicate. Not all researchers have the same finesse; and it is easy to believe that you have it, but your critics do not.

These same factors cause fraud in forensic science.  Joyce Gilchrist, Fred Zain, and Pamela Fish made headlines when their counterfeit lab reports were exposed.  [Annie Dookhan is added to the list.] The problems with fingerprinting go deeper (NecessaryFacts here).  As with other instances, the causal factors may be the pressure for results, the huge and easy funding for such work, and a desire to believe your own results, coupled with a faith in altruistic ends that justify any means.  But the rational choice theory of crime stands against such excuses and denials. 

According to the theory of crime based on objective psycho-epistemology, criminals act from the lack of thought.  When pressed later, words come out of their mouths, often generated by an intuitively correct feeling for what the interrogator wants to hear.  They don't mean it. 

The Office of Research Integrity of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reports on its findings.  Defrauding the federal government is a federal crime, no surprise in that.  Every university has some similar "institutional review board" for human and life science experiments.  No similar agencies assure integrity in the physical sciences.  None exists for criminology. 

New age and post-modernist professors teach future police officers that there is no such thing as right and wrong.  According to Stuart Henry, Bruce A. Arrigo, Christopher Williams, and Mark M. Lanier, taking their cues from Paul Feyerabend and Jacques Lacan, the Enlightenment was a Euro-centric, phallo-centric conquest.  They claim that the senses are invalid, that logic has no validity.  Such assertions are the deepest expression of academic fraud. 

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Four Books about Bad Science
Criminalistics: Science or Folkway?
Junk Criminology as Pseudo-Science
Science Fair Science Fraud
David Harriman's Logical Leap
Great Scientific Experiments
Fantastic Voyages: Teaching Science with Science Fiction

Thursday, February 17, 2011

What is Literacy?

We can feel good about the fact that literacy in the United States is 99% -- until we realize that this puts the USA tied for 21st with 24 other nations, all behind Tonga (99.2), Kazakhstan (99.6), Slovenia (99.7), Estonia (99.8) and Georgia (100%).  (Data is from  this Wikipedia article which cites this United Nations Development Programme report.)  According to the CIA World Factbook table on Literacy there is no common definition, so the CIA accepts prima facie the numbers provided by local governments.  Afghanistan counts those over age 15, which is a common threshhold.  Albania counts people over nine years of age.  Averages also must be parsed out by gender. 

I once worked a project where my manager was an ethnic Estonian.  He told me that during the worldwide depression of the 1930s, Estonians counterfeited postage stamps in preference to money.  He said that measured by the number of books published annually per capita in the native language, Estonia was second only to Iceland in literacy.  I never checked the figures from the 1930s, but today's numbers are available.  By this standard, the USA, which publishes the most books overall, is again 21st, behind Israel (20) Hungary (19), Estonia (14), Iceland (2), and the Vatican City (1). 

The table is at the bottom of this post.  I compiled the numbers from the usual sources via Wikipedia: books published annually; and 2010 population estimates.  I found it interesting to look at the number of people per book.  At the Vatican City it is four.   Here in the USA, it is over 1100. 

Of course, it is important to read the data.  The UK greatly leads the USA in books published annually, but literacy in English extends to the USA, Australia, etc.  My own copies of The Wealth of Nations and The Communist Manifesto were published in the UK, but bought (used) here in the USA.   The same must be recognized for Spanish and Chinese.  Hong Kong and Taiwan lead in literacy, but the mainland is third in total books published.  Also, literacy in ideographs can be problematic.  In a college class in Japanese for Business, I learned that it is paradoxical that a nation with 99% literacy has markedly fewer readers of newspapers.  To read a newspaper requires knowing about 3000 kanji characters.  I do not know what it takes to be literate in Chinese in China, but 3000 characters seems about right, given that Ogden's Basic English lists 850 words. 

The United Nations Development Programme and the CIA both agree that literacy is a measure of prosperity and freedom.  Thus, it is telling that Arabic does not appear in the top tier.  In Iran, it is Farsi.  The most populous Muslim nation is Indonesia, where Arabic is a foreign language.  As the home of Mecca, with its small population, Saudi Arabia could be like the Vatican City, but it is not.  And that speaks to the economic and political poverty of the Arabic nations. 

Spain is joined by Argentina and Mexico as a top producer of books.  That compounds the magnitude of the raw numbers.  So does the aggregation of the UK, Canada, the USA, and Australia.  To balance that consider the linguistic isolation of leading producers such as Israel, Hungary, and Vietnam.  At the other extreme, India is a nation with five official languages.  Its rank (45th) does come as an aggregate of all books against total population.  Still, when contrasted with China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, the internal lingusitic barriers explain much of India's poverty.

Where does all of this leave the USA?  And how does the Internet impact the statistics?  What does it mean to be a nation of bloggers and tweeters? 


ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS

Click to see full chart of statistics.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Another Example of Unlimited Constitutional Government

Regardless of how stringent the constitution, the government always can be expanded.  Does the legislature have a right to establish its own reference library? The Library of Congress serves that purpose, and serves the nation secondarily.  Here in Michigan, the legislature has its library - open to the public at their request on our behalf.  They also have a museum.  A legislative museum might seem to be out of bounds, but certainly not every archive comes in the form of a book.  The government must have the right to record its own actions.  By extension, those acts - the papers; the artifacts - would become meaningless without a record of the cultural context.  So, a museum would be appropriate to support the knowledge base of the government.  How far would it be extended?
One of the young librarians, Will Tuchrello, in the South Asia department (which has Southeast Asia), saw that I was a serious researcher and he found a desk for me in a "researchers" room so I did not have to be out in the reading room. I also had a place to store a heavy bag of nickels which I used at the copy machine. I could also keep my books on the desk until I finished with them. My research really sped up!
[...]
But I am happy to report that Dr. Tuchrello was promoted up through the ranks and is now the Director of the LOC's Southeast Asia office in Jakarta, Indonesia. He travels the region looking for references, posters, maps, etc. to purchase to send back to the LOC. The LOC also trades American publications with countries too! The LOC could not have found a more dedicated person for the job! 
Howard A. Daniel III, E-Sylum Volume 14, Number 06, February 6, 2011
NUMISMATIC BOOK MUTILATION AT THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS here

So, in a strictly limited constitutional republic, it could be necessary to have librarians traveling the world trading on behalf of the government.

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
Unlimited Constitutional Government (January 2011 blogs) here.
An Objective Foundation for Government