Showing posts with label CSI Effect. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CSI Effect. Show all posts

Friday, July 29, 2011

Innovation and Discovery

The merchants of Sumeria invented fiduciary instruments on clay tablets 3000 years before the first coin was struck.  Coins, philosophy, and democracy were invented all at the same time in the Hellenic hinterland of Middle Eastern civilization.  It is often the case that new ideas and the new cultural activities that spring from them come from the frontiers, not the centers.  Those centers are vital, analogous to the heart and brain of a person.  But we explore with our fingertips ...
The Chronicle of Higher Education online for July 24 featured news about a robotic retrieval system for archive storage installed at the University of Chicago.  The University of Chicago is an important school.  Like Harvard, MIT, the University of Michigan, Ohio State University, UNC Chapel Hill, Berkeley, Stanford, and a dozen others, it has instant name recognition.  However, the first automated retrieval system was installed at Cal State Northridge in 1991.  I benefited from ours at Eastern Michigan University. 
“The ARC was built as part of the new Bruce T. Halle Library in 1998 at a cost of $1.6 million...Eastern was the second university in the U.S. to install an industrial strength inventory control system adapted for library use ... ” (ARC Handout; courtesy of Keith Stanger, Information Services Librarian.)
Like Cal State Northridge (36,000 students), EMU (24,000 students) is a midrange school, not special, not famous for scientific research or football.   Yet, at least in my case, EMU did deliver world class education.  
I made the mistake of blowing through criminology with a lot of community college credits.  We have an “articulation agreement” between Washtenaw Community College and Eastern Michigan University. As a grad student, one summer, I met an undergrad whose feet never touched the ground running through two short summer terms toward a bachelor’s.  He missed a lot.  I would have, too, but as a graduate, I had Gregg Barak for crim theory and then for global crime.  An expert dialectician, he can argue any side of any topic; and we did that.  He loves facts and has no patience for unfounded opinions.  Long having enjoyed tenure, he has had the freedom to write textbooks which influence the next generation of criminologists.
I also profited from having Young S. Kim for the undergrad class in social science research.  Dr. Kim assigned two peer-reviewed articles each class and he encouraged us to read them carefully, even to check the arithmetic.  Kim and Barak are co-authors with Judge Donald Shelton on the only statistically rigorous studies of the so-called “CSI Effect.”
Majoring in criminology, I had a lot of sociology classes.  As an undergraduate and graduate, I benefited from Prof. Ronald Mark Westrum, a pioneer in complex organizations, along with Charles Perrow of Yale.  Ron Westrum was my prof for complex orgs, undergrad seminar, technology in society, and social problems.  For him, I wrote papers on the FBI as a complex organization, the history of coinage as a technology of commerce, and the benefits of healthy aging, among five or six others.  
I first enrolled as a freshman in 1967.  I never stopped going to school.  I enjoy learning, of course, but working in information systems since 1977, I had to ride the leading edge in computer programming with repeated classes in languages and applications, from BASIC to Java, and accounting to robotics.  When I came to EMU, I transferred in 180 credits from the College of Charleston, Case-Western Reserve, Cleveland State, Lansing Community College, New Mexico State, and Washtenaw.  Big and small, I’ve seen them all.  I feel sorry for kids who forego the opportunity to profit from small classes, and close interaction with the actual professor whose name appears in the catalog for that class, rather than being tutored by a grad student who lacks not just lifetime experience, but deep academic experience.  
When I enrolled at the College of Charleston, I was assigned Mark van Doren’s Liberal Education. Back then, C of C was a small four-year school with 450 enrolled.  One of our professors for European history was György Heltai who worked in the government of Hungary after WWII and was arrested, imprisoned and tortured in a Stalinist purge.  The professor of classics, Alexander Lenard, published his Latin translation of Winnie-the-Pooh.  My professor for chemistry, Carl Lykes, spent his summers at the Savannah River Nuclear Power Plant.  It was just a little old college, nothing special, but a place where world class intellectuals shared their working lives with any interested student.  
Over the years, I have had the “coasters” and “dodgers” excoriated in the recent report to the University of Texas by consultant Rick O’Donnell.  But I also benefited from “stars” and “pioneers.”  Like the invention of coinage, philosophy, and democracy, or the lightbulb, airplane, and computer, excellent education is drawn to the cultural centers, but it may not begin there.  
As Plato is famous for his Cave and Republic, F. A. Hayek’s stamp is “spontaneous order.”  Ludwig von Mises warned of “planned chaos.”  Certainly, I plan to be on a bus by 3:30 PM and be picked up by a taxicab at a transit center at 4:30 PM.  I have some control over those events only because the providers have known intentions of their own  which bring me at least one unplanned order of events.  It certainly works better than going to a government office, filling out some forms, and requesting two modes of transport for a personal motive.  When the Washington planners talk of high-speed rail, they do not think of Mike Marotta’s transient desires... or yours...  
Discovery, invention, and innovation cannot be planned.  Some schools have been successful with their robotic library retrieval systems.  But I know that the system does have failures - Perrow calls them “normal accidents” - and when the robot goes down, no one gets any books until a service technician shows up.  You can plan your actions; you cannot plan their consequences.
I usually blow off Chronicle articles.  I read this one.  And it worked out in an unplanned way.  As soon as I saw the headline, I planned to write this post.  The serendipity came toward the conclusion.   
The case for keeping print within reach is more complex than fuzzy rhetoric about the joy of serendipitous browsing. The research habits of Adrian Johns, a history professor at Chicago, give you a sense of why.Mr. Johns specializes in the history of the book; his recent work, Piracy, traces the intellectual-property wars from Gutenberg to Bill Gates. When a reporter visited his bright, fifth-floor office re­cently, the bespectacled British historian had just returned from a trip to Glasgow. He was interested in Robert Andrew Macfie, a 19th-century sugar magnate and member of Parliament who ran the first big campaign to abolish intellectual-property rights. A lot of Macfie material hasn't been digitized: pamphlets, election manifestos, correspondence. Much probably never will be, because there's little economic incentive.
Now I know about Robert Andrew Macfie.  

ALSO ON NECESSARY FACTS
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Saturday, July 2, 2011

Nerd Nation: Natalie Portman, Danica McKellar, and Felicia Day

In their ground-breaking papers on the so-called “CSI Effect” Kim, Shelton, and Barak identified a general social “tech effect.” About 28% of Americans have bachelor’s degrees.  The master’s is the new bachelor’s.  Complain as we might about public education – including nominally private schools that lockstep along – the fact is that college and university education are the baseline for acculturation.  So, it is not surprising that droves of divas have degrees.  Competition being what it is, brainiacs nestle among today’s working actresses.

Padmè Amidala has an
Erdös number of 7
Natalie Portman (Princess Padmè Amidala in Star Wars; but a slew of credits, including producer and director) was co-author on two academic journal articles before she left high school.  Her real name is Hershlag. 
  • “A Simple Method To Demonstrate the Enzymatic Production of Hydrogen from Sugar,” Ian Hurley, Natalie Hershlag, and Jonathan Woodward, The Journal of Chemistry Education., 1998, 75 (10), p 1270.
  • “Frontal Lobe Activation during Object Permanence: Data from Near-Infrared Spectroscopy,”  Gaudette T; Kagan J; Baird A.A; Walz K.A; Boas D.A; Hershlag N., NeuroImage Vol: 16 Issue: 4
Abstract - The ability to create and hold a mental schema of an object is one of the milestones in cognitive development. Developmental scientists have named the behavioral manifestation of this competence object permanence. Convergent evidence indicates that frontal lobe maturation plays a critical role in the display of object permanence, but methodological and ethical constrains have made it difficult to collect neurophysiological evidence from awake, behaving infants. Near-infrared spectroscopy provides a noninvasive assessment of changes in oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin and total hemoglobin concentration within a prescribed region. The evidence described in this report reveals that the emergence of object permanence is related to an increase in hemoglobin concentration in frontal cortex.

The OrgTheory blog here had a “nerd-off” between Felicia Day and Danica McKellar.  I am easily the last person in the world to have not watched Buffy: the Vampire Slayer, but I found Day because of The Guild.  I discovered the gamers while surfing for Dragons and Dungeons.  (The True Dungeons live action role-playing game - LARP – is played at Gen Con Indy and they use money-like tokens to keep track of potions, weapons, etc.  I wrote them up for the Numismatist.)   

Felicia Day did not take to being passed over for roles after being Vi in "Buffy" so she built her fan base from online social interaction.  Her production of The Guild was an award winner. (Here is her Codex award montage.)   The sociologists at OrgTheory were hot on Day.  Her homepage (here
Dragon Age
 recommends getting your facts about her career from Wikipedia and IMDB.  "Felicia Day had a dual major at UT Austin, mathematics and music, graduating at the top of her class with a concentration in violin performance." (She alludes to being a violinist in The Guild.)  Day immerses herself in the fantasy culture and appears as a guest of honor at cons.  Her coming appearances include:
  • San Diego Comicon: July 21th-24th
  • Chicago Comicon: Aug 12-14th
  • DragonCon Atlanta: Sept 2-5th
  • NYC Comicon: Oct. 13th-16th
  • Blizzcon Anaheim: Oct. 21rst-22nd
  • Long Beach Comicon: Oct. 29th-30th

Danica With Hair
We knew Danica McKellar from The West Wing where she played Elsie Snuffin,the half-sister of NATO brat and speechwriter-with-game Will Bailey.  When I read the “nerd-off” on OrgTheory, I traced her over the web and was deeply impressed.  McKellar majored in mathematics at UCLA.  She has an Erdös number of 4 for being a co-author on “Ashkin–Teller models on Z^2” by L Chayes ,  D Mckellar ,  B Winn, Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General Volume 31 Number 45 (1998).  You can read the paper on her website here. 
For a region of the nearest-neighbour ferromagnetic Ashkin–Teller spin systems on Z^2, we characterize the existence of multiple Gibbs states via percolation. In particular, there are multiple Gibbs states if and only if there exists percolation of any of the spin types (i.e. the magnetized states are characterized by percolation of the dominant species). This result was previously known only for the Potts models on Z^2.
Danica McKellar also wrote three books, generally targeted to girls.  Note the different locations here at the Ann Arbor District Library.
  • Math Doesn't Suck, New York : Hudson Street Press, c2007. (Youth Y510 McK)
  • Kiss My Math, New York : Hudson Street Press, c2008. (Teen 510 McK)
  • Hot X: Algebra Exposed, New York : Hudson Street Press, c2010. (512 McK)
Also on Necessary Facts:




Thursday, June 16, 2011

Junk Criminology as Pseudo-Science

Writing about the so-called "CSI Effect" Gregg Barack, Young Kim, and Donald Shelton focused on jurors.  Among the many challenging discoveries of their statistically valid investigation was the fact that less-educated people demand more physical evidence. The "CSI Effect" also runs strongly within professional criminal justice. 


Since the declaration of scientific criminology in the 19th century, police and prosecutors have sought out empirical evidence, relying on what were then new sciences such as  chemistry.  Cesare Lombroso claimed that scientific measurements could identify congenital  criminals. Dactylography (fingerprinting), graphology (handwriting analysis), polygraphs (lie detectors), and psychological profiling, were joined by laboratory analysis of fibers, hair, tissue, cloth, paper, ink, tire treads, shoe prints, typewriter keys, and just about everything else.

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's Sherlock Holmes in the Strand Magazine became the public's model detective.  Not a mere rationalist Holmes's theories began with empirical evidence.  He studied cigar ashes. In his day, the electron was a theory.  Fifty years later high school students accepted it as basic knowledge.  Today, surgeons are guided by images created by positrons, the anti-matter analog of the electron.  Humans have been to the Moon; our cellphones depend on satellites.  We clone animals and  genetically modify vegetables.  It is not surprising that through this century, empirical evidence from the police laboratory is expected to reveal and convict perpetrators.  But not all science fiction becomes science fact. 

Shoe prints, tire prints, fiber analysis, hair analysis, handwriting analysis, and even fingerprints, all  lack scientific validation.  Scientific truths are statistically valid, large sample, peer-reviewed reports tested by double-blind experiments, explained by coherent theory for which there exists a standard of falsifiability.  The scientific method can be explained as three steps or 14, but it is always the creation and testing of a hypothesis by empirical methods.  A scientific truth is both rational (logically consistent) and empirical (known by perception).  


In the United States, the "Daubert Standard" amplifies and reinforces the Federal Rules of Evidence.  Flooded with expert witnesses in complicated civil and criminal cases, the courts needed a method for differentiating accomplished researchers in esoteric fields from charlatans.  It is bad enough that among the general public those who are less educated expect evidence that they are not equipped to evaluate.  The "CSI Effect" also runs strongly within the profession of criminal justice.  


 The "Criminology and Justice" blog (here) formed by European professionals centered on the Balearic Criminological Society has a recent series of "CSI" articles.  The latest touts the forensic efficacy of shoe prints.  Another is about the value of the forensic sketch artist.  It is true that a complete matrix of evidence can place the perpetrator with the victim at the time of the event.  It is also true that there exists no scientifically valid database of shoe prints; and police sketches of alleged assailants have been elements in wrongful convictions. These professional criminologists cannot differentiate rational-empirical methodology from pseudo-science.  And that is a crime.

The CSI Effect: A Bibliography
(Note that so far only the works of Shelton, Kim and Barack are statistically valid, applying appropriate mathematics to a large sample population.  Many other reports,  while informative, are largely anecdotal.)
  • “The CSI effect reconsidered: is it moderated by need for cognition?” Dante E. Mancini, North American Journal of Psychology 13.1 (March 2011): p.155.
  • “Examining the ‘CSI-effect’ in the cases of circumstantial evidence and eyewitness testimony: Multivariate and path analyses,” Young S. Kim,  Gregg Barak, Donald E. Shelton; Journal of Criminal Justice 37 (2009) 452–460
  • “An Indirect-Effects Model of Mediated Adjudication: The CSI Myth, the Tech Effect, and Metropolitan Jurors' Expectations for Scientific Evidence,” Hon. Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, and Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law, Volume 12 Fall 2009 Number 1.
  • "The 'CSI Effect': Does It Really Exist?" Donald E. Shelton, National Institute of Justice Journal 259. (17 March 2008) http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/journals/259/csi-effect.htm.
  • “A Study of Juror Expectations and Demands Concerning Scientific Evidence: Does a 'CSI Effect' Exist?” Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law Vol 9 No 2
  • “The CSI effect: legitimate concern or popular myth?” Catherine M. Guthrie, Prosecutor, Journal of the National District Attorneys Association, Vol 41 No. 4 (July-August 2007): p.14
  • “The CSI Effect,” Richard Jones and Arthur Bangert,  Science Scope (Nov 2006): p.38.
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Monday, April 25, 2011

The CSI Effect

Jurors with less education demand scientific evidence.  Educated jurors trust the prosecutor.

History can be funny.  Typically, progress comes from ferment.  People in cities interact in multipicative modes.  Entrepreneurs, artists, and scientists attract others of their kind.   Alternately, the peripheries bring new ideas to the centers.  Eastern Michigan University is a midrange midwest state school, located in Ypsilanti, in the shadow of its neighbor in Ann Arbor.  Unlike the U of M, EMU prides itself on teaching, not research.  Generally, the graduate students do not teach classes: they are GAs, clerical assistants, not TAs.  Classes are taught by the professors whose names appear in the course schedules.  Originally the Michigan Normal College, its motto is "Education first."  It is from EMU that Gregg Barak, Young S. Kim, and Donald E. Shelton published their paradigmatic research into juror attitudes.  "The CSI effect" did not originate with them, but they have produced the most rigorous statistical studies of it. 

Gregg Barak describes himself as a "dialectician."  He can argue any side of any topic equally well.  Among his many focus studies is the relationship between crime and the mass media reporting of it.  Young S. Kim specializes in research methods. Donald E. Shelton serves as the Chief Judge of both the Circuit and Probate Courts in Washtenaw County.  So far, they have co-authored three papers investigating and explaining the "CSI Effect."  
  • "Examining the 'CSI-effect' in the cases of circumstantial evidence and eyewitness testimony: Multivariate and path analyses," by Young S. Kim,  Gregg Barak, Donald E. Shelton; Journal of Criminal Justice 37 (2009) 452–460.
  • "A Study of Juror Expectations and Demands Concerning Scientific Evidence: Does a 'CSI Effect' Exist?" by Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law Vol 9 No 2; 367.
  • "An Indirect-Effects Model of Mediated Adjudication: The CSI Myth, the Tech Effect, and Metropolitan Jurors' Expectations for Scientific Evidence." by  Donald E. Shelton, Young S. Kim, and Gregg Barak, Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law Vol 12 No 1. (Fall 2009)
They found that less educated jurors demand scientific evidence, whereas jurors with more education accept the prosecutor's statements prima facie.  More deeply, they theorize not a specific "effect" attributed to a widely popular franchise of television shows, but rather a general "tech effect."  They attribute that to the pervasive facts that reveal widespread ownership of iPods, laptops, and other devices among even the poorest and least educated members of jury pools.  

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Nerd Nation

The jocks have been shoved aside.  While the Super Bowl has not withered from disinterest,  the fact remains that a significant (if unmeasured) population of  America know themselves to be geeks or nerds --  and are proud of it. 
Big Bang Theory:
Wolowicz, Leonard, Penny, Sheldon and Raj
 I  point to mainstream television programs such as CSI, NCIS, Big Bang Theory, NUMB3RS, and Psych, as well as to the foundation media such as NPR's "Science Friday" (1.3 million listeners), and the long established commercial success of the Discovery Channel and the recently rebranded Syfy ("SciFi") Channel.   It is not just that Big Bang Theory is a prime time television comedy about physicists.  To that must be added Big Blog Theory, the website that offers real physics in support of the comedy.  This is in the instant tradition of the Wolfram Mathematica pages to supplement NUMB3RS when it was on the air, 2005-2010.  On an NCIS episode, laboratory technician Abby Sciuto is waxing on about Bill Nye, the Science Guy.  Her boss, former Marine sniper Jethro Gibbs, does not get the reference.  She goes on.  "Oh," he says, "Just like Mr. Wizard."  She replies with a question mark. 

When Hugo Gernsback launched his science fiction magazines, he intended that they be for everyone.  Still, he insisted that his writers pad their stories with expositions from textbooks, to ensure that the science (however fanciful) was credible.  When John W. Campbell took over, he identified his audience specifically as educated in science, and he courted writers such as Robert Heinlein and Isaac Asimov because of their education. 

At least one good reason to take any science class.
 Fully 28% of Americans claim to have four-year degrees.  In a funny way, the show NUMB3RS reflects that.  While David Krumholtz learned his lines well, his supporting actress, Navi Rawat (Dr. Amita Ramanujan) says that she surfed the web to read popular math to help her delivery.  Beyond that, co-star Judd Hirsch actually majored in physics.  Even closer to the limit, supporting actor Dylan Bruno (Agent Colby Granger) has a bachelor's from MIT in environmental engineering.  Pauley Perrette (Abbey Sciuto of NCIS)'s degree in sociology exposed her to the related study of criminology.

Cellphones and computers have morphed into smartphones and pads.  Clearly, comedy and drama consonant with our culture must reflect that.

Also reflected in that broader culture, is the "CSI Effect" in real courtrooms.  At first, it was a complaint from prosecutors.  Lacking physical evidence, some found it hard to win a conviction.  Or so they claimed.  The problem interested criminologist Gregg Barak of Eastern Michigan University who specializes in the mass media affects on our perceptions of crime.  He enlisted his colleagues Young Kim and Donald Shelton.  They found, broadly, that in fact, the "CSI Effect" is really just a "tech effect."  We expect scientifically valid physical evidence because we live in a technological culture.  Beyond that, however, their numbers showed that jurors with less education demand more evidence.  Jurors with more education tend to take the prosecution's word for it.  Whether this correlates to time spent watching television, or solidarity within social classes is a different question. 

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Nerd Nation 2.0 (Danika McKellar, Felicia Day, and Natalie Portman)
Nerd Nation 3.0 (Dungeons and Dragons) 
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Where All the Children are Above Average